Let's do some more calls. CLSA initiates Micron today. Outperform 155 is the target.Quote, riding the crest of the AI wave. Bill, you own the name. A name that doesn't get discussed all that much to be honest when we talk about the AI wave.>> Not discussed enough. I mean, this this name, I've loved it for a while and it's been our portfolios. Um, high bandwidth memory, you know, faster computing, more efficient computing at a lower power consumption.It's going to be critical here uh in the AI race. and they ...

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with net sales increasing 8% year over year to $62 billion, driven by digital commerce growth [1][9] - E-commerce sales saw a notable 14.8% increase in Q3, with adjusted growth reaching 15.7%, highlighting the company's ability to integrate digital and physical retail [9] Digital Commerce Performance - Digital momentum was evident with website traffic rising 20%, average order value increasing 3%, and Costco Logistics enhancing deliveries of bulky items by 31% [2][9] - Categories such as gold and jewelry, toys, health and beauty, and home furnishings experienced double-digit online gains, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards higher-value digital purchases [2] Growth Initiatives - Costco's partnership with Affirm introduced Buy Now, Pay Later financing, making large-ticket items more accessible [3] - The implementation of personalized product recommendation tools and the expansion of the Costco Next marketplace improved the member experience while maintaining a value-first philosophy [3] Physical Store Performance - Comparable sales across the company rose 5.7%, with U.S. traffic up 5.5%, demonstrating strong performance in physical stores [4] - Membership renewal rates remained high at 92.7% in the U.S. and Canada, indicating sustained customer loyalty despite the growth in digital adoption [4] Overall Business Strategy - Costco's online business is evolving into a significant growth pillar, reinforcing its leadership in both physical retail and digital commerce [5] - The balance between warehouse operations and e-commerce is a key competitive advantage for Costco [4] Comparative Analysis - Costco's e-commerce growth is notable when compared to competitors, with Walmart Inc. reporting a 25% increase in global e-commerce sales and Sprouts Farmers Market achieving 27% growth [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - COST stock has outperformed the industry, with a 7.4% increase over the past year compared to the industry's 3.3% growth [8] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Costco stands at 48.19, higher than the industry average of 32.34, indicating a premium valuation [11]

Core Insights - The earnings season for retail stocks highlights the disparity in consumer spending between low/middle-income and high-income households due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - Companies like Walmart are experiencing a trade-down effect, where higher-income consumers are opting for value-oriented retailers [2][3] Group 1: Costco Wholesale - Costco has shown strong performance with a total return of over 220% in the last five years, indicating robust stock appreciation and dividend reinvestment [4] - The company's business model relies on an annual membership fee, which provides stable revenue, and it recently raised this fee for the first time in seven years while maintaining a retention rate above 90% [5] - Costco's commitment to expanding its global footprint is expected to drive future revenue and earnings growth, justifying its premium valuation at over 54 times forward earnings [6] Group 2: Ross Stores - Ross Stores caters to budget-conscious consumers seeking value, especially during economic uncertainty, and has a strong performance with a total return of over 72% in the last five years [7][9] - The company anticipates some earnings pressure due to tariffs, as approximately 50% of its inventory is sourced from China, but it maintains solid fundamentals with strong traffic and comparable store sales growth [8] - Analysts have a consensus price target of $159.40 for Ross Stores, indicating that the stock may be fairly priced despite tariff challenges [9] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Both Costco and Ross Stores can coexist in a diversified investment portfolio due to their distinct business models and target consumers [10] - Costco is viewed as a growth stock with defensive characteristics, benefiting from higher-income households' spending [10][11] - Ross Stores represents a cyclical play in retail, appealing to value-oriented shoppers, which is expected to sustain strong traffic and comparable sales [12]

2025年08月24日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 资金流向：整体流入接近停滞，行业间分化较大 本周，标普500成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+1.7（亿美元，下同），上周为+75.8，近4周为-75.0，近13周为+209.2。 18个行业资金流入，6个行业资金流出。资金流入的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（+11.0）、综合金融（+4.6）、银行（+3.8）、资本品（+3.3）、医疗保健设备 与服务（+3.3）；资金流出的行业主要有：软件与服务（-29.9）、半导体产品与设备（-7.7）、食品与主要用品零售（-4.7）、技术硬件与设备（-2.3）、媒 体与娱乐（-1.1）。 盈 ...

Core Insights - Rising inflation is expected to benefit both Walmart and Costco as consumers seek low-price options [2][3][11] - Walmart has a larger market cap of $778 billion compared to Costco's $441 billion, with Walmart operating over 10,000 stores globally [5] - Costco's membership model contributes significantly to its profits, with membership fees accounting for about 65% of net income [9] Financial Performance - Walmart's total revenue for fiscal 2024 was $648 billion, with adjusted earnings per share increasing by 5.7% to $6.65 [8] - Costco reported a 6.7% increase in U.S. net sales to nearly $238 billion for fiscal 2023, with membership fees rising by 8% to $4.58 billion [9] - Costco's stock rose 63% in the 52 weeks following its earnings release, while Walmart shares climbed 66% in the same period [8][10] Market Position and Strategy - Walmart managed to keep grocery price increases to 3% during a period of 6% to 9.1% inflation, outperforming competitors like Amazon and Kroger [7] - Costco's membership-driven model provides stability during inflationary periods, as evidenced by a 10.4% increase in membership fee income in its recent quarter [10] - Analysts expect Costco to increase earnings per share by 10% for the current quarter, while Walmart's recent earnings report was slightly disappointing [12][13] Future Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to thrive amid rising grocery prices, but Costco's membership model may offer a more advantageous position given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [14]

Core Insights - Costco has successfully established itself in the Chinese market over the past six years, leveraging its unique membership model and high-quality product offerings to enhance consumer shopping experiences [1][12] - The company has expanded its store presence to seven locations across six cities in mainland China, demonstrating a strong growth trajectory since its first store opening in Shanghai [4][12] Expansion Strategy - The first Costco store in mainland China opened in Shanghai on August 27, 2019, with a shopping area of nearly 14,000 square meters and over 1,000 parking spaces, attracting significant customer traffic [2] - Following the successful launch, Costco opened its first store in Shenzhen in January 2024, achieving a remarkable membership registration of 140,000 prior to the opening [2][4] Operational Excellence - Costco's expansion in China is supported by precise site selection and refined operational strategies, resulting in a solid foundation for growth [4] - The company has introduced unique services, such as the first Costco member-only gas station in Nanjing, which offers self-service fueling at discounted prices [4] Global Sourcing and Pricing Strategy - Costco employs a global sourcing strategy that ensures popular international products are available in China, while also providing opportunities for local products to reach global markets [5] - The company maintains a strict gross margin cap of 14% on all products, ensuring competitive pricing through a robust global procurement system and partnerships with leading manufacturers [5] Enhanced Member Services - In response to the growing demand for efficient online shopping, Costco launched a home delivery service in 2024, offering same-day delivery within 90 minutes in select cities [6] - The online platform features a wide range of products, including food, personal care, electronics, and large appliances, allowing members to enjoy a seamless shopping experience [6] Private Label Strategy - Costco has maintained a high standard for supplier management, offering around 4,000 carefully selected global products while adapting its offerings to local consumer preferences [7] - The company has localized some of its private label products, such as Kirkland Signature, to reduce costs while ensuring quality comparable to mainstream brands [7] Commitment to Sustainability - Costco emphasizes sustainable practices, such as reducing plastic use in packaging and offering products certified by international organizations for environmental responsibility [10] - The company’s products, including Kirkland kitchen paper and seafood, adhere to sustainability certifications, ensuring traceability and environmental stewardship [10][12] Future Outlook - China is a key market for Costco, and the company aims to continue expanding its store footprint while enhancing member value through a combination of global procurement and local innovation [12] - The company plans to deepen its market trust through a sustainable product strategy and an integrated online-offline shopping experience [12]

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett emphasizes the importance of long-term investment rather than market timing, suggesting that investors should accumulate time in the market to benefit from economic growth in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Buffett's cash holdings as a percentage of total assets in Berkshire Hathaway can indicate his market sentiment, with high cash levels suggesting he is waiting for better investment opportunities [2][3] - Current cash levels in Berkshire Hathaway have not been seen since previous economic downturns, indicating a potential strategy of waiting for lower stock prices [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - High-quality, resilient companies such as PepsiCo, Waste Management, and Costco are highlighted as attractive investment options in a potentially overvalued market [4] - PepsiCo's current P/E ratio of 18.1x is below its historical average of 23.0x, suggesting it may be undervalued and suitable for a dollar-cost averaging strategy [5][6] - Waste Management is recognized for its stable business model and consistent long-term returns, with a current P/E ratio of 33.89 and a price target of $254.35, indicating a potential 23% upside from its current price [9][11] - Costco is noted for its resilience and ability to deliver value, despite having a high P/E ratio of 55.64, which reflects its premium status in the retail sector [13][14]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's partnership with Affirm to offer "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) financing is expected to enhance digital sales, particularly for high-value items like appliances and electronics, by reducing psychological barriers for budget-conscious consumers [1][3] Digital Sales Performance - E-commerce comparable sales increased by 14.8% in Q3 of fiscal 2025, with website traffic rising by 20% and average order values up by 3% [2][8] - Costco Logistics reported a 31% year-over-year increase in big and bulky e-commerce deliveries, indicating a strong demand in this segment where BNPL could further drive adoption [2][8] Competitive Landscape - Competitors such as Walmart and Amazon have already integrated BNPL options into their platforms, with Walmart focusing on seasonal items and electronics, while Amazon offers Amazon Pay Later to facilitate monthly payments [5][6] Financial Metrics - Costco's stock has performed well, with shares increasing by 11.4% over the past year, surpassing the industry's growth of 7.7% [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year sales growth of 8.1% and earnings per share growth of 11.6% for the current financial year [10] Valuation - Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 48.96, which is higher than the industry average of 32.67, reflecting a Value Score of D [9]

Core Viewpoint - Both Costco and Alphabet are considered good dividend stocks despite their low yields, with Costco being a more stable option and Alphabet offering greater long-term growth potential [2][13][14] Group 1: Costco - Costco has a consistent dividend history, with a payout ratio below 30% and an annual growth rate of around 13% over the past years [5][6] - The latest quarterly dividend was raised to $1.30, resulting in an annual payout of $5.20 and a yield of approximately 0.5% [5] - Costco occasionally pays special dividends, such as a $15 special dividend in early 2024, which can benefit long-term shareholders [6] - The stock trades at over 50 times earnings, reflecting its quality but leaving little margin for error in future performance [7][8] - Despite healthy sales and earnings growth of 8% and 13% respectively in the most recent quarter, the high valuation limits future return expectations [8] Group 2: Alphabet - Alphabet initiated its dividend in 2024, with a small annual payout of $0.84 per share and a yield of around 0.4%, but a payout ratio of less than 10% allows for significant growth potential [9] - The company is heavily investing in AI and cloud infrastructure, which has impacted short-term free cash flow but is aimed at long-term growth [10] - Alphabet's diversified revenue sources, including advertising, YouTube, and Google Cloud, are performing well, contributing to its growth story [11] - The stock trades at about 21 times forward earnings, which is lower than many tech peers and Costco, indicating a favorable valuation [11] - Revenue and operating income increased by 14% year over year in the second quarter of 2025, suggesting potential for substantial future dividend increases [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.9%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.8% [3] - 18 out of 24 sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences (+5.5%) and healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%) [3] Price Trends - The report highlights that small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed small-cap growth stocks, with a rise of 3.4% compared to 2.8% [3] - The sectors with the largest gains include pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+5.5%), healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%), and durable goods and apparel (+3.6%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that declined include food and staples retailing (-2.4%) and commercial and professional services (-1.4%) [3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flows for S&P 500 constituents showed a significant increase to +$7.58 billion this week, up from +$1.70 billion last week [4] - The healthcare equipment and services sector saw the highest inflow at +$2.76 billion, followed by media and entertainment (+$1.31 billion) and pharmaceuticals (+$1.09 billion) [4] - Notably, the software and services sector experienced an outflow of -$476 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.2% upward adjustment in the 12-month forward EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents [5] - 22 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, with semiconductor products and equipment leading at +0.6% [5] - The energy sector was the only one to experience a downward revision, with a decrease of -0.3% [5] Global Asset Overview - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,450, reflecting a 0.9% increase for the week and a 16.1% increase year-to-date [11] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, rose by 3.1% this week, indicating strong performance in this segment [11] Sector Observations - The healthcare sector recorded a price return of 5.0% this week, outperforming other sectors [16] - The materials sector also performed well, with a 1.8% increase, while the energy sector lagged with only a 0.5% increase [16] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the highest price return at 5.5% [16]