证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 美股市场速览 弱于大市 小盘带头回撤，资金加速流出 价格走势：整体边际走弱，小盘显著回撤 本周，标普 500 涨 0.3%，纳斯达克跌 0.2%。 风格：大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+0.6%）＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长-0.5%） ＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-1.0%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-3.1%）。 13 个行业上涨，10 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：电信业务 （+9.0%）、技术硬件与设备（+4.6%）、能源（+3.9%）、媒体与娱乐（+3.8%）、 银行（+2.7%）；下跌的主要有：软件与服务（-6.9%）、汽车与汽车零部件 （-3.2%）、医疗保健设备与服务（-3.1%）、商业和专业服务（-2.6%）、 耐用消费品与服装（-1.5%）。 资金流向：资金加速流出，科技板块内部分化 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-84.1（亿美元， 下同），上周为+5.6，近 4 周为+50.1，近 13 周为+1.2。 15 个行业资金流入，9 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：技术硬件与设 备（+40. ...

美股市场速览 弱于大市 小盘带头回撤，资金加速流出 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 价格走势：整体边际走弱，小盘显著回撤 本周，标普 500 涨 0.3%，纳斯达克跌 0.2%。 风格：大盘价值（罗素 1000 价值+0.6%）＞大盘成长（罗素 1000 成长-0.5%） ＞小盘价值（罗素 2000 价值-1.0%）＞小盘成长（罗素 2000 成长-3.1%）。 13 个行业上涨，10 个行业下跌，1 个基本持平。上涨的主要有：电信业务 （+9.0%）、技术硬件与设备（+4.6%）、能源（+3.9%）、媒体与娱乐（+3.8%）、 银行（+2.7%）；下跌的主要有：软件与服务（-6.9%）、汽车与汽车零部件 （-3.2%）、医疗保健设备与服务（-3.1%）、商业和专业服务（-2.6%）、 耐用消费品与服装（-1.5%）。 资金流向：资金加速流出，科技板块内部分化 本周，标普 500 成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为-84.1（亿美元， 下同），上周为+5.6，近 4 周为+50.1，近 13 周为+1.2。 15 个行业资金流入，9 个行业资金流出。资金流入的主要有：技术硬件与设 备（+40. ...

Core Insights - Costco and Walmart are the two largest retailers globally, with Walmart operating big box and grocery stores, while Costco focuses solely on club stores [1] - Both companies are currently considered expensive, with price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, and price-to-book ratios above their five-year averages and the market's average [1] Valuation and Investment Appeal - Value investors are likely to avoid both stocks due to their high valuation metrics, with Walmart's P/E ratio exceeding the market average [1] - Dividend investors may also be disinterested, as Walmart's dividend yield is 0.8% and Costco's is even lower at 0.5%, both below the S&P 500's yield of 1.1% [2] Growth Potential - Growth investors may find Costco more appealing due to its ongoing geographic expansion, despite Walmart's larger size [3] Company Performance Metrics - Costco's current price is $940.10, with a market cap of $417 billion, a gross margin of 12.88%, and a dividend yield of 0.68% [5] - Walmart's current price is $119.13, with a market cap of $950 billion, a gross margin of 23.90%, and a dividend yield of 0.79% [6][7] Business Model and Long-term Outlook - Costco's membership fees contribute significantly to its gross profits, allowing for lower product margins and higher member retention [5] - Walmart benefits from consumers trading down to its stores due to economic conditions, but this could change if the economy improves [7] - Both companies are well-managed, but their current valuations make them less attractive for many investors, with Costco's business model seen as better positioned for long-term success [8]

Core Insights - The market is showing renewed interest in Costco Wholesale, with the stock up 13% in January 2026 after a stagnant previous year [1] - Costco's membership model continues to attract customers, leading to high renewal rates and robust profitability [1] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Costco reported an 8.2% year-over-year increase in sales, with comparable sales rising 6.4% [2] - Digitally enabled sales surged by 20.5%, and earnings per share increased from $4.04 to $4.50 [2] - Membership renewal rates were 92.2% in the U.S. and Canada, and 89.7% worldwide, with paid memberships growing by 5.2% to 81.4 million [2] Business Model Adaptation - The company is evolving its business model by introducing self-checkout options and online registration and renewals [3] - While traditional e-commerce does not align well with Costco's warehouse model, the company is expanding grocery delivery through a partnership with Instacart and enhancing curbside pickup services [3] Market Response - Costco's monthly updates are well-received, with December sales showing an 8.5% year-over-year increase and comparable sales up 7% [4] - The stock has a market capitalization of $417 billion, with a current price of $940.10 and a P/E ratio of 52, indicating a premium valuation [6] Investment Considerations - Despite its reliable growth, Costco's stock is considered expensive, with a P/E ratio above 60 last year, which led to a market correction [6] - Currently trading at 52 times trailing-12-month earnings, the stock may appear less attractive, but long-term investors might consider dollar-cost averaging to capitalize on future growth [7]

Core Insights - Costco is committed to maintaining low membership prices as a core offering and has made recent changes to enhance membership value [2][3] - The company reported a significant increase in membership fee income, indicating successful retention and growth of its member base [14][17] Membership Improvements - Recent enhancements to Costco's membership include extended opening hours for Executive Members, discounted Instacart membership, and a 5% cash back on gas purchases [3][7] - The basic annual Gold Star membership costs $65, while the Executive membership is $130, offering a 2% annual reward on qualifying purchases [6][17] Membership Growth Metrics - Membership fee income reached $1.329 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, with 39.7 million paid Executive memberships, up 9.1% from the previous year [14][17] - Total paid members increased to 81.4 million, a 5.2% rise year-over-year, and total cardholders reached 145.9 million, up 5.1% [17]

Core Viewpoint - Costco is a leading player in the retail sector, showing significant investment returns over the past decade, outperforming the S&P 500 index [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Over the past 10 years, Costco has produced a total return of 682%, meaning a $100 investment would be worth $782 today [1]. - Costco's current market capitalization stands at $417 billion, with shares trading at a price of $940.10 [3][4]. Group 2: Business Fundamentals - The company has expanded its global presence with over 900 warehouses, leading to increased merchandise sales and a larger membership base [2]. - Costco is experiencing higher net income due to its growth in warehouse numbers and customer loyalty [2]. Group 3: Stock Valuation - Costco's shares are currently considered expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 52, suggesting that investors should wait for a pullback before considering an investment [4].

Group 1 - Jim Cramer has highlighted Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) as one of his favorite stocks despite a 2.7% decline over the past year and an 11.5% increase year-to-date [2] - Wolfe Research indicated that Costco could benefit from $75 billion in tax refunds for households earning less than $200,000 in 2026 [2] - Mizuho raised Costco's share price target to $1,000 from $950 and upgraded the rating to Outperform, citing positive trends in premium member additions and domestic renewals [2] Group 2 - Cramer expressed dissatisfaction with Costco's recent share price performance, stating it needs to go higher as it has stalled at 47 times earnings [3] - There is a belief that some AI stocks may offer greater potential for higher returns compared to Costco, despite its investment potential [3]

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan. 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Instacart (NASDAQ: CART) and Costco Wholesale announced the expansion of their North American partnership into Europe, with the launch of Costco's first-ever same-day delivery websites in France and Spain, powered by Instacart's Storefront Pro commerce platform and fulfillment solutions services. Costco members in France and Spain can now shop online and receive delivery through Costco's websites in each country – sameday.costco.fr and sameday.costco.es. T ...

The lawsuit filed last week with the Southern District claims that Costco's promise that its rotisserie chickens contain no preservatives signals to "reasonable consumers"—like the two women who are plaintiffs in the case—that nothing was added to preserve the taste, flavor, texture, or shelflife of the product. But two preservatives—sodium phosphate and carrageenan—are listed on the ingredient list. Two California shoppers noticed something that might seem obvious in retrospect: To sell an entire, slow- ro ...

Costco has generated fantastic growth over the years, and it can also be an attractive option for dividend investors.Shares of Costco Wholesale (COST 0.98%) have risen by more than 170% in the past five years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 and its roughly 80% gains over that stretch. The retailer's operations have proven to be resilient, and its steady and calculated growth strategy has paid off.One thing that may not always attract investors' attention, however, is the company's dividend. At just ...