Chevron Faces Venezuela Setback - Is the Stock Still a Hold?

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation is facing significant challenges due to the U.S. government's revocation of its conditional license to operate in Venezuela, which will impact its revenue and supply chain stability [1][10]. Group 1: Operational Challenges - The U.S. government has given Chevron 30 days to wind down operations in Venezuela, cutting off a key source of heavy crude supply [1]. - Chevron's joint ventures with PDVSA accounted for nearly 20% of Venezuela's oil output, indicating broader implications for U.S. refiners [10]. - The company's cash flow from operations fell sharply by 30% year-over-year in Q4 2024, raising concerns about sustaining dividend growth and capital investments [11]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Chevron's stock has been in a prolonged consolidation phase, delivering a modest -0.2% return over the past two years, leading to investor frustration [2]. - The stock is currently at a crossroads, with key questions regarding whether to buy, hold, or sell [2]. Group 3: Long-Term Growth Potential - Chevron has a strong dividend history, having increased its payout for 37 consecutive years, with the latest hike of 4.9% bringing its yield to over 4.5% [3]. - The company is targeting a 6% annual production increase through 2026, supported by strong production growth from the Permian Basin and Kazakhstan [7]. - The $53 billion acquisition of Hess is expected to enhance Chevron's long-term production profile and competitive positioning, despite facing regulatory scrutiny [9]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Outlook - Chevron's stock trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at a discount relative to ExxonMobil, indicating potential upside for value investors [13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chevron's 2025 earnings has moved downward, reflecting concerns over commodity price volatility and refining weakness [12]. - Despite challenges, Chevron is currently rated as a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors may benefit from waiting for greater clarity on oil prices and operational execution [15][16].