Why Is Mondelez (MDLZ) Up 15.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Mondelez International reported a decline in adjusted earnings and revenues in Q4 2024, primarily due to increased cocoa inflation and operating costs, leading to a downward revision in future earnings estimates [2][8][10]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q4 2024 were 65 cents per share, a 15.9% decrease on a constant-currency basis, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents [2]. - Net revenues increased by 3.1% year over year to $9,604 million, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$9,691.7 million [3]. - Organic net revenues grew by 5.2% year over year, driven by a 5.1 percentage point increase in net pricing [3]. Regional Performance - Revenues from emerging markets rose 1.7% to $3,640 million, with a 6.7$5,964 million, reflecting solid growth from Europe and the U.S. [4]. - Region-wise, revenues in Latin America dropped 7.2%, while Asia, the Middle East & Africa, and Europe grew by 9.9% and 5.8%, respectively [5]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Adjusted gross profit fell by $440 million at constant currency, with the gross profit margin contracting by 650 basis points to 31.5$396 million at constant currency, with the operating income margin contracting by 510 basis points to 10% [7]. Future Outlook - Mondelez projects organic net revenue growth of around 5% in 2025, but expects adjusted EPS to decline by nearly 10% due to cocoa cost inflation [8]. - The company anticipates a double-digit increase in inflation for 2025, primarily driven by cocoa costs and labor expenses [9]. - Estimates for Mondelez have been trending downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -15.95% [10]. Industry Comparison - Mondelez belongs to the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry, where another player, Sysco, reported a revenue increase of 4.5% year-over-year [13].