Why Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) Down 4.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Insights - Harley-Davidson reported a wider-than-expected adjusted loss of 93 cents per share for Q4 2024, compared to a consensus estimate of a loss of 68 cents, and a profit of 18 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Consolidated revenues fell 35% year-over-year to $688 million, driven by significant declines in motorcycle sales and related products [2][3] Financial Performance - Revenues from the Motorcycle and Related Products segment dropped 47% year-over-year to $420 million, missing forecasts due to lower motorcycle shipments [3] - Worldwide motorcycle shipments decreased by 15% to 25,700 units, falling short of estimates [3] - Revenues from motorcycle sales alone plummeted 60% year-over-year to $231 million, with an operating loss of $214 million, significantly worse than the previous year's loss of $44 million [3] Regional Sales Performance - Retail motorcycle units sold globally decreased by 14.9% year-over-year, with North America sales down 4% to 15,127 units [4] - Sales in EMEA declined by 7%, while Asia Pacific and Latin America saw drops of 26% and 7%, respectively [4] Other Revenue Streams - Parts and accessories revenues fell 10% year-over-year to $118 million, but exceeded estimates [5] - Apparel revenues decreased by 6% to $54 million, also beating projections [5] - Harley-Davidson Financial Services reported revenues of $257 million, up 4% year-over-year, but missed forecasts [5] LiveWire Segment - LiveWire shipments fell 54% to 236 units, with revenues declining 32% to $10 million [6] - Operating loss for LiveWire narrowed to $26 million, better than projections [6] Financial Position - Selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased to $210.5 million from $225.5 million year-over-year [7] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $1.59 billion, while long-term debt decreased to $4.47 million [7] 2025 Guidance - For 2025, Harley-Davidson expects revenues from HDMC to remain flat to down 5% year-over-year, with an operating income margin of 7-8% [8] - LiveWire segment anticipates wholesale units between 1,000-1,500 and an operating loss of $70-$80 million [9] Market Sentiment - Estimates for Harley-Davidson have trended downward, with a consensus estimate shift of -46.08% [10] - The company currently holds a subpar Growth Score of D and a Momentum Score of F, but an A on the value side, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [11] - Harley-Davidson has a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [12]