Why Is Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) Up 5% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Insights - Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) reported a fourth-quarter 2024 core FFO per share of $2.23, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.24 and reflecting a 3.9% year-over-year decline from $2.32 [2] - Rental and other property revenues for Q4 were $549.8 million, below the consensus estimate of $552.5 million but 1.4% higher than the previous year [3] - The company provided its initial outlook for 2025, projecting a core FFO per share range of $8.61-$8.93, with a midpoint of $8.77 [12] Financial Performance - The same-store portfolio's revenues decreased by 0.2% year-over-year, with average effective rent per unit declining by 0.5% [4] - The same-store portfolio's property operating expenses increased by 3.4% year-over-year, leading to a 2.1% decline in NOI [4] - For the full year 2024, core FFO per share was $8.88, lower than the prior year's $9.17 and below the consensus estimate of $8.89 [3] Portfolio Activity - MAA acquired a 386-unit multifamily community in Dallas for approximately $106 million and a 3-acre land parcel in Raleigh for $5 million [6] - The company disposed of a 216-unit community in Charlotte and a 272-unit community in Richmond for combined net proceeds of $85 million, resulting in a gain of $55 million [7] - As of December 31, 2024, MAA had seven communities under development, totaling 2,312 units with a projected cost of $851.5 million [7] Resident Turnover and Lease Pricing - Resident turnover was historically low at 42.0% on a trailing 12-month basis, attributed to low move-outs for single-family homes [5] - Lease pricing for new leases declined by 8.0%, while renewing leases increased by 4.2%, resulting in a blended decrease of 2% in lease pricing [5] Balance Sheet Position - MAA ended 2024 with cash and cash equivalents of $43.0 million, up from $41.3 million at the end of 2023 [10] - The total debt outstanding was $5.0 billion, with an average maturity of 7.3 years [11] - The company maintained a net debt/adjusted EBITDAre ratio of 4.0 times [10] 2025 Guidance - MAA anticipates a first-quarter 2025 core FFO per share between $2.08 and $2.24, with a midpoint of $2.16 [12] - Same-store property revenue growth is projected between -0.35% and 1.15%, with operating expense growth expected between 2.45% and 3.95% [13] - Average physical occupancy for the same-store portfolio is guided to be between 95.3% and 95.9% [13] Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates for MAA, leading to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [16] - The stock has a subpar Growth Score of D and a grade of F on the value side, indicating it is in the lowest quintile for investment strategy [15]