Elon Musk Makes a Massive Prediction for Tesla's Profits

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 42% decline from its all-time highs at the end of 2024, despite a remarkable 17,430% increase since its IPO [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Tesla delivered 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, a slight decrease from 1.81 million in 2023, marking the end of a streak of year-over-year growth [4] - The company's gross margin fell to 17.9% in 2024, the lowest level in five years, as management cut prices to move inventory [4] - Net income has decreased to $7 billion from a peak of $15 billion less than two years ago [6] Group 2: Market Competition - Tesla's market share in the EV sector is declining, with competitors like BYD gaining significant ground, particularly in China [5] - In the U.S., EV sales grew by 15% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, while Tesla's market share continues to erode [5] Group 3: Future Prospects - CEO Elon Musk has expressed optimism about a potential 1,000% increase in profits over the next five years, but this projection is met with skepticism given the current market conditions [2][11] - The company is pivoting towards AI, humanoid robots, and robotaxis, but tangible progress in these areas has yet to be demonstrated [7][8] - The humanoid robot prototype, Optimus, remains in early development stages, and the self-driving robotaxi promises have not yet materialized into market-ready products [9][10] Group 4: Valuation Considerations - Even if profits were to increase from $7 billion to $70 billion, Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio would still be higher than that of General Motors, indicating that the stock may not be a good buying opportunity based on fundamentals [12][13]