华泰证券：2025年稀土行业或至景气拐点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Myanmar's supply of rare earths has not yet recovered, and a proposed 20% resource tax is significantly increasing costs for mining companies, leading to a substantial reduction in China's imports of rare earths from Myanmar in 2024 [1] - Domestic control over rare earths is becoming more comprehensive and stronger, with the proposed "Rare Earth Management Measures" aiming to include all sources of rare earths, such as domestic mines, imported ores, and monazite, into a management system [1] - It is estimated that if Myanmar's supply decreases in 2025 and recovers in 2026, along with a continuation of low growth in domestic quotas, the global supply-demand balance for praseodymium and neodymium oxide will show a demand decrease of -5.8% in 2025 and -4.6% in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The industry may reach a turning point in 2025, with supply-demand improvements potentially driving prices to fluctuate strongly, although risks remain if domestic quota growth exceeds expectations [1] - Ongoing tariff disturbances highlight the strategic importance of rare earths as an export substitute against tariff impacts, emphasizing the need to focus on the value of sector allocation [1]