JPMorgan's Scathing Tesla Prediction: Musk's Car Company Will Report Worst Quarterly Deliveries In 3 Years

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is expected to experience its weakest quarter for car deliveries since 2022, with a significant reduction in forecasted deliveries due to the impact of CEO Elon Musk's controversial role in the Trump administration [1][2]. Delivery Forecast - JPMorgan analysts have lowered their forecast for Tesla's first-quarter deliveries by 20%, from 444,000 to 355,000, which is below the consensus estimate of 430,000 [1][2]. - This prediction indicates Tesla's lowest deliveries since Q3 2022 and an 8% decline compared to Q1 2024 [2]. Market Impact - Tesla's sales in Europe are under significant pressure, with new vehicle registrations dropping 50% year-over-year in January, attributed to Musk's statements regarding geopolitical issues [3]. - Analysts believe Tesla stands to lose the most among American car manufacturers due to potential changes in electric vehicle tax credits under the Trump administration [4]. Stock Performance - Despite the bearish forecast, Tesla's stock saw a rebound, gaining over 8% in early trading, although it remains down 38% year-to-date and 48% from its all-time high in December [6]. - JPMorgan's price target for Tesla is $120, representing more than 50% downside from its current price of $250 [4]. Public Perception - A CNN poll indicates that 53% of Americans hold a negative view of Musk, while only 35% view him positively [7]. Industry Context - JPMorgan is among several major firms, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, that have recently cut their Q1 delivery forecasts for Tesla [9]. - Tesla's stock initially surged after Trump's election, gaining up to 91% before declining due to concerns over Musk's role and potential tariffs [9].