Down 93%, Is It Finally Time to Buy Moderna?

Core Viewpoint - Moderna's stock has significantly declined from its peak during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising questions about its current valuation and future potential [1][4]. Company Performance - Moderna's sales surged to $18.5 billion in 2021 due to the success of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, but are projected to drop to between$1.5 billion and $2.5 billion this year [3]. - The stock has fallen approximately 93$450 per share in 2021, closing below $34 per share as of March 11, 2023 [1][4]. Investment Considerations - Despite the decline, Moderna's combined product sales are expected to reach around$2 billion this year, and the company holds about $7 billion in cash and investments, leading to a low enterprise value of approximately$6 billion [6][7]. - Moderna is working towards delivering up to 10 product approvals by 2027, with ongoing FDA reviews for expanding the approval of its RSV vaccine [8][9]. Product Pipeline - Moderna is developing several vaccines, including a seasonal flu vaccine and an individualized cancer vaccine in collaboration with Merck, which has shown promising results in early studies [10][11]. - The company has a robust pipeline, but the historical challenges of vaccine development and market competition may limit growth potential [12][14]. Market Environment - The current market for vaccines has been challenging, as evidenced by Pfizer's RSV vaccine sales, which have not met expectations despite strong backing [13][14]. - The leadership of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services by a vaccine skeptic raises concerns about the future regulatory environment for vaccine makers like Moderna [16]. Acquisition Potential - Moderna's low valuation and strong pipeline make it a potential acquisition target for larger pharmaceutical companies, particularly given its collaboration with Merck [17].