Disney Stock: 4 Key Metrics Validating Its Comeback

Core Insights - Walt Disney's stock forecast indicates a potential upside of 27.26%, with a 12-month price target of $125.64 based on 26 analyst ratings, while the current price stands at $98.73 [1] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 increased by 44% year-over-year to $1.76, driven by the direct-to-consumer (DTC) segment, which benefited from price hikes for Disney+ and Hulu [2] - Income before income taxes rose 27% to $3.7 billion, and revenues from the film studio's Content Sales/Licensing segment surged 34% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, attributed to successful releases like Moana 2 and Inside Out 2 [2] Streaming Services - Disney+ and Hulu have seen average revenue per user (ARPU) increase by 5% and 4% year-over-year, respectively, due to price increases, with Disney+ subscribers at 124.6 million, exceeding analyst expectations [3] - The DTC business turned profitable in Q4 2024, with operating income improving by $431 million year-over-year to $293 million from a loss of $138 million in Q4 2023 [4] Subscriber Metrics - Despite a sequential decline of 700,000 Disney+ subscribers, the combined subscriber base for Disney+ and Hulu increased by 900,000 to 178 million, indicating a shift towards higher ARPU customers [5] - Sports revenue rose 9% to $4.422 billion domestically and 7% year-over-year to $389 million internationally [5] Theme Parks and Experiences - Domestic Parks and Experiences operating income fell 5% year-over-year, impacted by hurricanes and cruise pre-opening expenses, while international revenues surged 28% year-over-year [8] - Experiences revenues increased by 9% year-over-year to $9.4 billion, with flat operating income of $3.1 billion despite a $120 million hit from hurricanes [9] - The company invested $1.79 billion in domestic capital expenditures, focusing on cruise ship fleet expansion, which is expected to continue driving revenue in the Parks & Experiences segment [11] Stock Market Activity - DIS stock is attempting a market structure low (MSL) reversal after a decline, with a potential reversal trigger above $99.10 [12][13]