耐用消费产业行业研究 2026 年 02 月 08 日 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003 ） zhaozhongping ＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：唐执敬（执业 S1130525020002 ） tangzhijing＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：谢俪丹 xielidan＠gjzq.com.cn 国际烟草巨头财报频出，泡泡年会更新，苹果官宣 AI 硬件布局 投资逻辑 潮玩：布鲁可登录日本市场、海外版图持续扩张，与 Takara Tomy 合作深入有望进一步推动其 IP 拓展进程。布鲁可 变形金刚星辰版前三弹将率先登岛，此次由日本《变形金刚》IP 官方持有方 Takara Tomy（多美）引入。2 月 5 日泡 泡玛特与中科宇航联名设计的太空主题 SPACE MOLLY 公仔完成太空首秀；2 月 6 日公司举办年会，会上宣布 2025 全 年全品类销售量超 4 亿，Labubu 单品销售量超 1 亿，全球注册会员超 1 亿人，门店数量超 700 家。 新型烟草：菲莫国际业绩会彰显 HNB 赛道长期增长动力，未来有望二次加速， ...

The 2026 rankings feature a diverse selection of cruise ships, from massive mega-ships offering cutting-edge amenities to ultra-luxury yachts and expedition vessels that venture to the most remote and awe-inspiring destinations. Whether cruising the warm waters of the Caribbean, exploring the rich cultural heritage of the Mediterranean, experiencing the pristine beauty of the Arctic, or navigating the enchanting South Pacific, these top ships embody the epitome of modern cruising. They cater to every type o ...

Core Viewpoint - Bob Iger has officially announced his retirement again, with the current head of theme parks and cruise lines set to take over as CEO by the end of 2026, prompting discussions on Disney's current position compared to when Iger returned from retirement [1]. Group 1 - Disney's current CEO, Bob Iger, will retire at the end of 2026, marking a significant leadership transition for the company [1]. - The new CEO will be the head of theme parks and cruise lines, indicating a focus on these segments moving forward [1]. - Discussions among Disney fans reflect on whether the company is in a better position now than it was when Iger returned from retirement [1].

Core Viewpoint - Disney has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 in recent years, but there are signs that this trend may soon change with new leadership and a focus on its profitable experiences segment [1][10]. Leadership Transition - Josh D'Amaro has been appointed as the new CEO, effective March 18, following Bob Iger's interim leadership, which was marked by challenges including box office failures and budget issues with Disney+ [4][3]. - Iger's tenure saw Disney stock gain only 7% compared to a 76.6% gain in the S&P 500, indicating a period of underperformance [9][10]. Financial Performance - Disney's market capitalization stands at $193 billion, with a current stock price of $108.70 and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7, reflecting low investor confidence [11][16]. - The experiences segment contributed 71.9% of Disney's first-quarter fiscal 2026 operating income, with operating margins of 33.1%, showcasing its importance to the company's financial health [12][13]. Strategic Focus - Disney plans to prioritize quality feature films, streaming, and sports content, while expanding its experiences segment through new parks and cruise fleet growth [14][15]. - D'Amaro's approach includes taking calculated risks, such as expanding into the Middle East with a new Disneyland, which could tap into a large potential customer base [15]. Investment Outlook - The company is viewed as a potential buy for patient value investors, especially if it can maintain strong operating income from its experiences segment and improve streaming margins [16][17]. - The investment thesis for Disney is considered to be at its strongest in recent times, despite the company's historical underperformance [17].

Core Insights - The Walt Disney Company reported strong performance in its experiences segment, achieving $10 billion in revenue for Q1 of fiscal 2026, marking a 6% year-over-year increase and the first time reaching the 11-figure mark [3][4] - The experiences segment, which includes theme parks, cruise lines, and consumer products, accounted for 38% of Disney's overall sales and generated $3.3 billion in operating income, representing 72% of the company's total income [5][6] - Disney is undertaking a $60 billion 10-year investment plan aimed at expanding its theme parks and cruise line operations, indicating a long runway for growth [7][6] Financial Performance - Disney's experiences segment revenue reached $10 billion in Q1, a 6% increase from the previous year [3] - The operating income from this segment was $3.3 billion, which is 72% of the company's total operating income [5] - The overall market capitalization of Disney is $193 billion, with a current stock price of $108.70 [8] Management and Leadership - Josh D'Amaro, who has led the experiences segment for over five years, has been appointed as the new CEO, effective March [8][9] - D'Amaro's leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the board's confidence in his ability to manage critical operations [9]

The fourth quarter earnings season momentum continues this week, as results from Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), AMD (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Palantir (PLTR) highlighted the calendar. As of Feb. 6, 59% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies have reported fourth quarter results, according to FactSet data, and Wall Street analysts estimate a 13% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter. If that rate holds, it would represent the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the index a ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：科创100ETF基金） 道琼斯工业平均指数首次突破50,000点大关，成分股中英伟达涨超7%，卡特彼勒涨超6%，高盛、摩根 大通涨超4%，迪斯尼、IBM涨超3%，联合健康、沃尔玛、思科涨超2%。 ...

The fourth quarter earnings season momentum continues this week, as results from Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), AMD (AMD), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Palantir (PLTR) highlighted the calendar. As of Jan. 30, 33% of S&P 500 (^GSPC) companies have reported fourth quarter results, according to FactSet data, and Wall Street analysts estimate an 11.9% increase in earnings per share for the fourth quarter. If that rate holds, it would represent the 10th consecutive quarter of annual earnings growth for the ind ...

执掌迪士尼超20年的CEO罗伯特·艾格终于要卸任了。 北京时间2月4日，迪士尼宣布，公司董事会投票决定任命迪士尼体验业务主管乔希·达马罗接任公司首 席执行官。这一任命将在3月18日召开迪士尼年度股东会时正式生效。 罗伯特·艾格在2005年接任迈克尔·艾斯纳成为CEO后，主导了对皮克斯、卢卡斯影业、漫威、21世纪福 克斯的收购，接连吞下了"玩具总动员""星球大战""漫威超级英雄""X战警""阿凡达""异形"等诸多重量 级影视IP，让迪士尼的版图不断扩张，成为当前市值近2000亿美元的好莱坞巨头。 2009年，迪士尼以42亿美元收购漫威。当时的漫威濒临破产，刚刚靠《钢铁侠》的真人电影获得喘息之 机，因此这笔收购也备受争议。但罗伯特·艾格力排众议，而漫威也凭借着迪士尼的资源注入，开始规 划了电影宇宙的宏大计划。随后十年间，漫威电影宇宙成为全球票房最高的系列电影，对好莱坞乃至全 球影视娱乐行业的商业模式产生了巨大影响。 2012年，迪士尼又斥资40亿美元收购卢卡斯影业。迪士尼借此获得"星球大战"与"夺宝奇兵"IP，成功重 启"星球大战"系列电影，并极大拓展了主题公园、衍生品及流媒体内容库。 但是，根据迪士尼近日在发布 ...

不过，迪士尼的最新业绩依然亮眼。迪士尼在周一公布的财年一季度财报显示，包括主题乐园、度假区 及邮轮业务在内的体验板块仍是核心利润引擎，收入同比增长6%至100.1亿美元，同期经营利润也增长 6%至33.1亿美元。其中，迪士尼+和Hulu流媒体服务的营业利润较上年同期暴增72%，达到4.5亿美元， 远高于华尔街分析师和迪士尼自己发布的预期。迪士尼首席财务官休·约翰斯顿将这一增长归因于《阿 凡达》和《疯狂动物城》等老电影的强劲收视表现（这些电影都有续作问世），以及美国广播公司 （ABC）的《高潜力（High Potential）》等综合娱乐节目。 对于迪士尼美国乐园会否继续成为该公司的利润中心的问题，国际主题公园服务公司创始人兼首席执行 官丹尼斯·斯皮格尔表示，未来迪士尼主题公园业务的增长将主要来自美国以外地区。拥有71年历史的 本土主题公园行业已趋于成熟，年增长率的提升难度与日俱增。迪士尼前首席执行官鲍勃 艾格周一向 投资者表示，他对迪士尼乐园业务仍"非常看好"，他还列举了迪士尼国际项目案例：今年3月即将登陆 巴黎迪士尼乐园的全新《冰雪奇缘》主题区，以及耗资100亿美元的阿布扎比室内主题公园。鲍勃 艾格 还强调 ...