Down 51% From All-Time Highs, Could Tesla Stock Keep Falling? The "Dean of Valuation" Has a Clear Prediction.

Core Viewpoint - Tesla stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 44% decline in 2025, contrasting with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's smaller declines of 4% and 9% respectively [1] - Despite recent downturns, Tesla shares are up 37% over the past 12 months, indicating prior peaks that were substantially higher than current trading levels [2] Group 1: Factors Driving the Sell-off - Softening demand in the electric vehicle (EV) market is identified as a primary headwind for Tesla [4] - Increased competition from Chinese EV manufacturer BYD poses a significant threat, as BYD is expected to capture the mass market while Tesla focuses on premium buyers [5] - Concerns over CEO Elon Musk's political engagements may lead to investor worries about his focus on Tesla's strategic roadmap [5] Group 2: Price Forecast and Financial Projections - Aswath Damodaran forecasts a share price of $148 for Tesla, suggesting a potential 38$188 billion in free cash flow for Tesla over the next decade, which contrasts with more aggressive projections from other analysts regarding robotaxi profits [10][11] Group 3: Long-term Outlook and Investment Strategy - The long-term potential of Tesla remains uncertain, particularly regarding the scaling of robotaxis and self-driving software, which could impact customer acquisition [12] - Despite near-term downward pressure, there is cautious optimism about Tesla's long-term profitability driven by advancements in AI and robotics [13] - A dollar-cost averaging strategy is suggested for investors looking to capitalize on potential long-term gains while managing volatility [14]