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Tesla Analyst Turns Bullish Following Factory Visit, Sees Multiple Catalysts Driving EV Stock To $425
TSLATesla(TSLA) Benzinga·2025-03-19 15:05

Core Viewpoint - Cantor Fitzgerald has upgraded Tesla from Neutral to Overweight, maintaining a price target of 425followingavisittoTesla′sAustinGigafactoryandAIdatacenters[1]Group1:InvestmentOutlook−Teslashareshavedeclinedapproximately45425 following a visit to Tesla's Austin Gigafactory and AI data centers [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - Tesla shares have declined approximately 45% year-to-date, presenting an attractive entry point ahead of key catalysts such as the introduction of the Robotaxi segment, Full Self-Driving rollout, a lower-priced vehicle, Optimus bot production, and the Tesla Semi [2][3] - The introduction of the Robotaxi segment is expected in June, with Full Self-Driving rollout in China already underway and anticipated in Europe in the first half of the year [3] - A lower-priced vehicle around 30,000, including tax credits, is expected to be introduced in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 2: Production and Revenue Expectations - High-volume production of the Optimus bot is expected in 2026, with initial deliveries in the first half of that year [4] - Production of the Tesla Semi is anticipated to start in the second half of 2025 or 2026, which is expected to positively impact Tesla's stock [4] - Future revenue growth is expected from Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus Bots, which are fundamental to Tesla's long-term thesis [5] Group 3: Near-term Challenges - Despite the bullish outlook, some near-term softness is anticipated, with a "mild" first quarter expected due to lower demand in Europe, increased competition in China, and negative sentiment surrounding CEO Elon Musk [6] - Growth in Tesla's automotive business may be partially offset by tariffs and the potential removal of the EV tax credit [7] Group 4: Delivery and Revenue Estimates - Cantor Fitzgerald has revised its full-year 2025 delivery estimates from approximately 2 million to 1.9 million and 2026 estimates from approximately 2.39 million to 2.33 million [8] - Full-year 2025 revenue estimates have been cut from 115.7billionto115.7 billion to 107.4 billion, and 2026 revenue estimates from 148.3billionto148.3 billion to 141 billion [8] Group 5: Upcoming Earnings Report - Tesla is not scheduled to report quarterly results until late April, with consensus estimates currently predicting earnings of 53 cents per share and revenue of $24.52 billion [9]