Newmont Gains 28% YTD: How Should Investors Play the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation (NEM) has experienced a 28.3% increase in share price year to date, driven by rising gold prices due to global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, although it has underperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 32.9% rise [1] Financial Performance - Newmont reported a liquidity position of $7.7 billion at the end of 2024, with cash and cash equivalents around$3.6 billion [5] - The company generated an operating cash flow of $6.3 billion in 2024, up from approximately$2.8 billion in 2023, with a free cash flow of $2.9 billion [5] - Shareholder returns included$1.1 billion in dividends and $1.2 billion in share repurchases under a$3 billion program in 2024 [5][7] Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices increased by roughly 27% last year, driven by central bank demand and geopolitical tensions, reaching a record high of $3,057 per ounce recently [6] - Gold prices are up approximately 16$500 million in annual run-rate synergies [9] Cost Challenges - Newmont faces rising production costs, with gold costs applicable to sales (CAS) increasing by about 7% year over year in 2024 [11] - All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to rise to $1,630 per ounce in 2025, up from$1,516 per ounce in 2024 [11] Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for Newmont have declined over the past 60 days, reflecting negative sentiment in the market [13] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.88X, which is an 8% discount compared to the industry average of 16.18X [15] Stock Performance - Over the past year, NEM's shares have gained 41.4%, outperforming the S&P 500's rise of 8.9% but underperforming the industry's 50% increase [17]