牧原股份(002714)：业绩强劲兑现 优秀支撑价值

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in 2024, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by favorable market conditions and operational efficiencies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 17.881 billion yuan, up 519.42% year-on-year [1]. - The adjusted net profit was 18.747 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 565.61% [1]. - In Q4 alone, the company reported revenue of 41.172 billion yuan, a 47.61% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.4 billion yuan, up 405.67% [1]. Operational Efficiency - The company sold 71.6 million pigs and processed 12.52 million pigs, with total pork product sales reaching 1.42 million tons [2]. - The company has improved breeding efficiency and optimized feed formulas, which has led to reduced breeding costs [2]. - As of January 2025, the total breeding cost is approximately 13.1 yuan/kg, with a target to reach 12 yuan/kg [2]. Industry Position and Shareholder Returns - The company is a leading player in the pig farming industry, benefiting from strong management practices [2]. - The company has revised its shareholder return policy, committing to distribute at least 40% of the distributable profits as cash dividends annually [2]. - The long-term profitability of the industry is expected to remain stable, particularly for companies with management and cost advantages [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.69 billion yuan, 19.84 billion yuan, and 22.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 3.60 yuan, 3.63 yuan, and 4.11 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.75, 10.67, and 9.42 [3].