国泰君安：预计未来数年油轮供给刚性持续 油运景气将有望超预期表现

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry is expected to experience better-than-expected performance due to a rigid supply of oil tankers and an anticipated increase in oil demand driven by a production cycle starting in 2024 [1] Group 1: Oil Shipping - The capacity utilization rate in the oil shipping industry has significantly improved, with traditional energy showing resilience and a continued shift of refineries globally [1] - The Middle East to China VLCC freight rates exceeded $50,000 recently, with OPEC+ expected to increase production in April, leading to heightened shipowner sentiment [1][3] - The shadow fleet sanctions have tightened since the beginning of the year, contributing to a recovery in freight rates in the second half of 2024 [3] Group 2: Refined Oil Shipping - Recent improvements in refinery profitability have supported a rise in freight rate averages, with expectations for historical highs in the first half of 2024 [4] - The trend of refinery relocation is expected to continue, with demand growth anticipated to exceed expectations, helping to absorb new ship deliveries [4] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - The recovery in Australian shipments is driving a rebound in freight rates, with potential increases in mining production over the next two years likely to support market conditions [1]