Natural Gas Prices Slip on First Inventory Build of 2025

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Department reported a higher-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, leading to a decline in futures prices despite resilient market conditions driven by limited production growth and strong global demand [1][2]. Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas stockpiles in the lower 48 states rose by 9 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended March 14, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 3 Bcf increase [3]. - Total natural gas stocks reached 1,707 Bcf, which is 624 Bcf (26.8%) below the 2024 level and 190 Bcf (10%) lower than the five-year average [4]. - Daily natural gas consumption fell to 104.3 Bcf from 110.1 Bcf the previous week, primarily due to lower residential and commercial usage caused by warm weather [5]. Price Dynamics - Natural gas prices fell by 3% to $3.98 per MMBtu following the larger-than-expected inventory injection, although prices remain elevated after recently hitting a two-year high of $4.491 [6][7]. - The market is experiencing upward pressure on prices due to a combination of cold weather, supply disruptions, and strong global demand, particularly from Europe and Asia [7][9]. Future Outlook - The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas inventories will end the withdrawal season in March about 4% below the five-year average, which could support prices around $4/MMBtu in the near term [10]. Company Highlights - Antero Resources (AR): A leading natural gas producer with a strong production outlook, reporting 316 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in the most recent quarter, over 60% of which was natural gas. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AR's 2025 earnings per share indicates a remarkable 1,381% year-over-year growth [12][13]. - Coterra Energy (CTRA): An independent upstream operator with a significant presence in the Marcellus Shale, Coterra's expected earnings per share growth rate for the next three to five years is 15.5%, outperforming the industry average of 11.4% [13][14]. - Gulfport Energy (GPOR): Focused on natural gas exploration and production, Gulfport has emerged from bankruptcy with a stronger balance sheet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GPOR's 2025 earnings per share indicates a 62.2% year-over-year growth [15][16].