日本央行维持政策利率在0.5%不变，中金：下次加息或在7月会议前后

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains its policy interest rate at 0.5%, with expectations for potential rate hikes in the future, particularly around the July meeting [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Bank of Japan's current policy interest rate remains unchanged at 0.5% [1] - CICC suggests that the next interest rate hike may occur around the July meeting, potentially increasing to 0.75% [1] - A subsequent rate hike is anticipated around January 2026, with a possible increase to 1.00% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan calculates the natural interest rate range for Japan between -1.0% and 0.5% [1] - Considering Japan's inflation target of 2%, CICC estimates that the nominal neutral interest rate may need to be between 1.0% and 2.5% [1] - It is suggested that by the second half of the fiscal year 2025 (October 2025 - March 2026), the Bank of Japan may need to raise the policy interest rate to the lower limit of the nominal neutral rate, which is 1.0% [1]