CMS(SH:600999) 智通财经网·2025-03-18 06:32Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a divergence in performance across different segments, with high-end storage prices remaining strong while consumer product prices have dropped to cyclical lows. The overall supply-demand dynamics are improving, leading to potential price turning points for certain NAND products and a recovery in profitability for storage module manufacturers [1][2]. Supply Side - Major storage manufacturers are actively reducing production, particularly for NAND products, with conservative capital expenditure plans for traditional consumer products in 2025 [2][3]. - The reduction in production and inventory levels is leading to a healthier supply-demand balance, with overseas leading manufacturers nearing healthy inventory levels [2][3]. Demand Side - High-end product demand remains robust, while consumer products are experiencing a mild recovery. The increasing penetration of AI is driving additional storage capacity requirements [2][3]. - North American cloud service providers are showing significant growth in capital expenditures, with optimistic guidance for 2025. Major storage manufacturers are focusing their capital expenditures on expanding high-end storage products like HBM and eSSD [3]. Price Dynamics - Since February, prices for high-end DRAM products like DDR5 have remained elevated, while prices for niche DDR3 products are still under pressure. NAND Flash wafer prices are showing marginal improvement, with expectations of price turning points for certain products in Q2 2025 [2][3]. Inventory Levels - The demand recovery is leading to visible effects from production cuts, resulting in an improved supply-demand landscape. Inventory levels among leading overseas manufacturers are approaching healthy levels [2][3]. High-End Storage Trends - The high-end storage market is expected to continue its positive trajectory, with domestic manufacturers accelerating their development in high-end storage technologies. For instance, Micron has raised its 2025 HBM market size guidance from $25 billion to $30 billion [3]. AI and Edge Products - The penetration rates of AI in mobile phones and PCs are projected to reach approximately 30% by 2025. The introduction of AI and AR products is expected to drive demand for storage modules and niche storage chips [4][5]. - The average DRAM capacity for AI phones is expected to increase from 8GB to between 12GB and 16GB, while AI PCs may see an increase from 12GB to between 16GB and 64GB [5]. Storage Innovation - The integration of computing and storage is breaking traditional barriers, with new architectures enabling more efficient data processing and reduced energy consumption. This trend is expected to accelerate innovation in storage solutions [6]. Investment Recommendations - The domestic storage market in 2025 will focus on three main themes: marginal recovery in consumer storage, domestic substitution in high-end storage, and expansion and innovation in edge storage. Key companies to watch include Jiangbolong, Baiwei Storage, Demingli, and others in the storage module and niche storage chip sectors [7].