Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is expected to see a turning point in the second half of 2024, with signs of recovery in milk powder and beef prices after a prolonged downturn [1][2][3] Industry Summary - The dairy sector has experienced a three-year downtrend, but recent indicators suggest a potential rebound. The domestic milk price is projected to decline in 2024 but may stabilize and improve in 2025 due to accelerated capacity adjustments and rising international milk prices [2][3] - Domestic raw milk production and cattle inventory are both expected to decrease in 2024, with a reported 4.5% drop in cattle inventory, reversing five years of growth. The total raw milk output is anticipated to be 40.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [3][4] - The average purchase price of fresh milk in China was 3.11 yuan/kg in February 2024, down 0.3% month-on-month and 14.1% year-on-year, while international prices are significantly higher, with New Zealand at approximately 3.12 yuan/kg, and the US and Europe at 3.83 yuan/kg and 4.01 yuan/kg respectively [3] Company Summary - Modern Dairy reported a revenue of 13.25 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, but cash EBITDA increased by 19.6% to 2.99 billion yuan. The company aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs to navigate the challenging market [7][9] - The cost of milk sales decreased to 2.53 yuan/kg, down 13.4% year-on-year, and feed costs fell to 1.95 yuan/kg, down 16.7%, contributing to a gross profit margin increase of 2.8 percentage points [7] - Despite a net loss of 1.42 billion yuan in 2024, attributed to declining milk and beef prices and biological fair value adjustments, the company remains optimistic about future profitability as prices stabilize [6][8] - Modern Dairy is diversifying its revenue streams, with a reported income of 2.8 billion yuan from comprehensive breeding solutions and significant advancements in breeding projects aimed at reducing reliance on imported frozen semen [9]
现代牧业称原奶行业拐点下半年出现，奶粉、肉牛价格已经涨了