证券研究报告 食品饮料 行业点评报告 2026 年乳制品行业迎投资机会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——产业升级有望提振原奶需求，奶价拐点向上或助力 头部乳企修复市场份额 投资要点： 供需矛盾驱动原奶价格低位震荡，但人均乳制品消费量亦有结构性提升空间，奶价 低迷预计为乳企创造产业升级窗口期，进而推动深加工产品国产替代。 联系人 1）供给侧：奶价有望上行，最直接利好上游牧业公司基本面。近年来，由于宏观环 境扰动叠加上轮原奶价格上行期多由大型规模企业主导扩产，导致本轮奶价下行周 期持续时间较长。截至 2026 年 1 月末，我国生鲜乳主产区价格已连续下滑 4 年多， 价格跌至 3.04 元/公斤，较 21 年高点 4.38 元/公斤的价格下滑 30.6%。我们认为伴 随上游牧业公司持续的亏损出清，近年来供给侧亦在持续收缩，2025 ...

一号文件发布，重点内容梳理！(0203) 畜牧业：强化生猪产能综合调控，巩固肉牛、奶牛产业纾困成果，促进供求平衡、健康发展。 首次提出多措并举促进乳制品消费。 种植业：稳定发展粮油生产，巩固提升大豆产能，拓展油菜、花生、油茶等生产空间，扩大油料多元化供给。 推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展。 种业：深入实施种业振兴行动，加快选育和 一号文件发布，重点内容梳理！(0203) 畜牧业：强化生猪产能综合调控，巩固肉牛、奶牛产业纾困成果，促进供求平衡、健康发展。 首次提出多措并举促进乳制品消费。 种植业：稳定发展粮油生产，巩固提升大豆产能，拓展油菜、花生、油茶等生产空间，扩大油料多元化供给。 推动棉花、糖料、天然橡胶等产业平稳发展。 种业：深入实施种业振兴行动，加快选育和推广突破性品种，推进生物育种产业化。 （与25年提法基本一致） 农业科技：因地制宜发展农业新质生产力，促进人工智能与农业发展相结合，拓展无人机、物联网、机器人等应 用场景，加快农业生物制造关键技术创新。 农产品贸易：促进农产品贸易和生产相协调。 推进农产品进口多元化。 培育具有国际竞争力的农业企业。 支持扩大优势特色农产品出口。 建议关注养殖产 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of building an agricultural powerhouse as highlighted in the 2026 Central Document No. 1, which focuses on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It stresses the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and the establishment of a diversified food supply system, indicating a shift from "doing well" to "strengthening" the regulation of pig production capacity compared to the 2025 document [7] - The report outlines the goal of stabilizing grain and oil production, with a target grain output of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization actions [7] - It highlights the integration of artificial intelligence with agricultural development, promoting the use of drones and other technologies to enhance agricultural productivity [7] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading seed companies that benefit from breeding innovation and the biological breeding industry, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds [7] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 outlines three main areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It calls for a focus on stabilizing grain production and enhancing the diversity of oilseed supply, including increasing soybean production and expanding the cultivation of other oil crops [7] Technological Integration - The report discusses the potential of integrating AI with agriculture, including applications in autonomous farming machinery and AI pest identification, which are expected to drive improvements in agricultural efficiency [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies with breeding research advantages, particularly in the context of the biological breeding industry, suggesting companies like Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds as potential investment opportunities [7]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國現代牧業控股有限公司(於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年2月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01117 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 HKD | | 1,000,000,000 ...

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

中国圣牧（01432）午后股价拉升14.49%，现报0.395港元，成交额2918.31万港元。 1月19日，现代牧业与中国圣牧联合公告称，涉及中信里昂证券有限公司代表现代牧业控股提出的可能 强制有条件现金要约，以收购中国圣牧全部已发行股份（现代牧业控股及Start Great Holdings Limited已 拥有或同意收购的部分除外）。该要约须待购股协议完成后方可提出，而购股协议的完成需满足相关先 决条件，并在最后截止日期前达成或获豁免。 截至公告日，除购股协议中所列部分条件外，其他先决条件尚未达成或获豁免。现代牧业控股已获得独 立股东对相关交易的批准。公告强调，要约仅为可能的强制有条件现金要约，购股协议完成及要约提出 均存在不确定性。 责任编辑：卢昱君 截至公告日，除购股协议中所列部分条件外，其他先决条件尚未达成或获豁免。现代牧业控股已获得独 立股东对相关交易的批准。公告强调，要约仅为可能的强制有条件现金要约，购股协议完成及要约提出 均存在不确定性。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 客户端 中 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Shengmu (01432) experienced a nearly 6% increase in stock price, reaching HKD 0.365, with a trading volume of HKD 9.77 million [1] - On January 19, Modern Dairy and China Shengmu jointly announced a potential conditional cash offer by CITIC Securities to acquire all issued shares of China Shengmu, excluding those already owned or agreed to be acquired by Modern Dairy Holdings and Start Great Holdings Limited [1] - The offer is contingent upon the completion of a share purchase agreement, which must meet certain conditions and be finalized before the deadline [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, aside from the conditions listed in the share purchase agreement, other prerequisite conditions have not been met or waived [1] - Modern Dairy Holdings has received approval from independent shareholders for the related transaction [1] - The announcement emphasizes that the offer is only a potential conditional cash offer, and both the completion of the share purchase agreement and the submission of the offer carry uncertainties [1]

消息面上，1月19日，现代牧业与中国圣牧联合公告称，涉及中信里昂证券有限公司代表现代牧业控股 提出的可能强制有条件现金要约，以收购中国圣牧全部已发行股份(现代牧业控股及Start Great Holdings Limited已拥有或同意收购的部分除外)。该要约须待购股协议完成后方可提出，而购股协议的完成需满 足相关先决条件，并在最后截止日期前达成或获豁免。 智通财经APP获悉，中国圣牧(01432)盘中涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.8%，报0.365港元，成交额977.16万 港元。 截至公告日，除购股协议中所列部分条件外，其他先决条件尚未达成或获豁免。现代牧业控股已获得独 立股东对相关交易的批准。公告强调，要约仅为可能的强制有条件现金要约，购股协议完成及要约提出 均存在不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].