想知道特朗普的中国策略，先要明白美国经济衰退的真相

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. economic situation under Trump's administration and its impact on China's economic growth targets, emphasizing that Trump's strategies may not effectively slow down China's growth while needing to boost U.S. growth simultaneously [1][9][72]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Performance - In 2024, the U.S. economy grew by 2.8%, while China's economy grew by 5.0%, indicating that China's growth rate is 80% higher than that of the U.S. [9][11]. - The U.S. economy's average annual growth rate has been declining for nearly 60 years, dropping from 4.4% in 1969 to 2.1% in 2024 [31][32]. - Trump's first term saw the lowest average GDP growth rate among post-war presidents at 1.8% [29]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Growth - To significantly increase U.S. economic growth, it is essential to raise the share of fixed capital formation in GDP [40][72]. - The correlation between fixed capital formation and GDP growth is strong, with a 12-year correlation coefficient of 0.85, indicating that higher investment leads to higher growth [44][68]. - Conversely, a higher share of consumption in GDP negatively correlates with growth, suggesting that increasing consumption may hinder economic expansion [51][68]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. economic strategies under Trump are likely to lead to conflicts with other nations and exacerbate internal political tensions [12][22]. - The perception of the U.S. economy in the international community is influenced by its comparative performance against China, which is expected to maintain a growth advantage [11][12]. - The article suggests that unless the U.S. can effectively slow China's economic growth, it must focus on increasing its own investment levels to remain competitive [72][76].