著名“金属交易员”：铜价将创历史新高，再涨1/3！

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to rise significantly, potentially reaching historical highs of $12,000 to $13,000 per ton, representing a one-third increase from current levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Kostas Bintas, former head of Trafigura's copper operations, now leading Mercuria's metal business, predicts a continued surge in copper prices despite a 12% increase this year [1]. - The threat of tariffs from the Trump administration has altered market dynamics, leading to an influx of copper into the U.S. and creating potential supply shortages in other regions [2][3]. - Approximately 500,000 tons of copper are currently being shipped to the U.S., significantly higher than the normal monthly import volume of about 70,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Signs of tightening global copper supply are emerging, indicated by the backwardation in copper futures and a decline in scrap copper exports [4][6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has reported the largest backwardation in over a year, with near-term contracts trading at higher prices than long-term contracts, suggesting supply constraints [4]. - U.S. scrap copper exports have plummeted to negligible levels due to tariff threats, which has historically served as a buffer in the market [6].