黄金将美股远远甩在身后，小心命运之轮再次转动！

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has underperformed this year, while gold prices have surged above $3,000 per ounce, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics in the coming months [1] - The S&P 500 index has lagged behind gold futures by 24% over the past three months, marking the largest gap since March 2022, characterized by market pressure and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 1 - The return rate gap between the S&P 500 and gold futures has reached its most significant level in over two years, with only 5% of historical instances since 1970 showing a gap below -24% [3] - This divergence suggests that traders' pessimism is intensifying, often indicating a market bottom followed by a rebound in the coming months [3] - Historically, when the return rate gap falls below -24%, the S&P 500 index tends to experience a volatile bottoming process, with a 65% probability of rising in the subsequent two months [3] Group 2 - Following the -24% return rate gap, gold may face pressure in the initial months, indicating traders' reluctance to hold safe-haven assets like gold [4] - If the stock market rebounds, gold could experience short-term pressure while remaining within its long-term upward trend [4]