三重“完美风暴”下，美债牛市将至？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the U.S. Treasury market may be on the brink of a bull market due to a combination of private sector deleveraging, escalating trade tensions, and a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1][5][6] Group 2 - The private sector is experiencing its largest deleveraging since the financial crisis, with private sector debt as a percentage of GDP decreasing by 2.4% in Q4 2024, while the federal government deficit is projected to reach 8.8% of GDP [2][4] - This deleveraging trend is occurring across all non-financial domestic sectors, including households, non-financial corporations, and state/local governments, marking a unique situation not seen even during the financial crisis [4] Group 3 - Escalating trade tensions, particularly related to tariffs announced by Trump, are expected to undermine corporate confidence, leading to increased uncertainty among investors and businesses [5][6] - The demand for safe-haven assets, such as U.S. Treasuries, has surged, with bond fund inflows reaching $90 billion in February, approaching the $126 billion inflow of stock funds [5] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations that the 10-year Treasury yield could decline further, potentially reaching 3.85% or even 3.75% if market pricing aligns with a lower policy rate [6][11][15]