BlueberryMarkets蓝莓外汇:美元兑加元1.4320,酝酿突破还是反弹?

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 1.4320, influenced by upcoming tariff details from President Trump and mixed economic data from the US, indicating a divergence in the economic structure between services and manufacturing [1][3][8]. Economic Data Summary - The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March from 51.6 in February, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024 [3]. - The Services PMI increased significantly from 51.0 to 54.3, surpassing market expectations of 50.8, while the Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8, below the expected 51.8 [3]. - The overall economic landscape in the US is characterized by strong services and weak manufacturing sectors [3]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market sentiment remains cautious regarding Trump's upcoming tariff announcements, with concerns that a broader range of tariffs could heighten global trade uncertainty [3][8]. - The potential for tariff exemptions for many countries has alleviated some concerns for Canadian businesses, contributing to the relative stability of the Canadian dollar [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD has been trading within a range of 1.4288 to 1.4400 since mid-March, with key moving averages indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears [4][6]. - A breakout above 1.4333 could lead to testing the previous high of 1.4400, while a drop below 1.4307 would necessitate monitoring the support at 1.4288 [4][6][8]. - The four-hour chart suggests that if the price surpasses 1.4388, it may challenge the 1.4419 level, but failure to do so could result in continued range-bound trading [6][8].