商品市场本周下行：CTA策略待增配

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market experienced an overall decline this week, with a notable performance in various sectors, indicating potential shifts in investment strategies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The commodity index fell by 1.01% this week, with specific sector performances: precious metals index rose by 0.07%, energy and chemical index decreased by 0.40%, agricultural products index dropped by 0.91%, industrial products index declined by 1.34%, non-ferrous metals index fell by 1.62%, and black metals index decreased by 4.25% [1] - Within individual commodities, the crude oil index increased by 2.95% and the gold index rose by 1.47% [1] Group 2: CTA Strategy Performance - The CTA short to medium-term strategy index increased by 0.25%, with 68% of products in the pool showing gains, while the CTA medium to long-term strategy index rose by 0.32%, with 72% of products in the pool also gaining [1] - The CTA quantitative arbitrage strategy index saw a slight increase of 0.05%, with 38% of products in the pool showing positive performance [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue experiencing divergence, with potential changes in sector trends; non-ferrous metals may remain strong, while black metals may see a halt in their downward trend [1] - Crude oil stabilization could lead to a recovery in the energy and chemical sector, but a comprehensive upward movement requires further signals [1] - Agricultural products are likely to continue internal divergence, and a comprehensive increase in CTA strategies may need to wait, with potential for increased internal divergence [1] Group 4: Market Conditions - The short to medium-term strategy environment shows a neutral bias, with daily liquidity rising and historical percentiles around 0.7; daily volatility has decreased, with historical percentiles at approximately 0.1 [1] - The medium to long-term strategy environment also reflects a neutral bias, with a slight recovery in market trend fluidity, and trend fluidity for varieties around 0.4, with approximately 60% of varieties showing trend fluidity [1] - The main factor net value has recovered, with only a slight decline in the 20-day momentum, indicating concentrated factor returns, particularly in breeding raw materials [1]