Following UBS Analysts? Tap These ETF Strategies

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Predictions - UBS Chief Strategist Bhanu Baweja warns that the "visibly tiring" US consumer may lead to an 8% drop in the S&P 500, with key economic indicators showing weakness [1] - Baweja projects the S&P 500 could fall to 5,300 points as profit estimates decline over the next three to four months, despite a recent two-week high [2] - Analysts forecast S&P 500 earnings growth to decrease from 12.5% to 9.5% in 2025, indicating a cautious outlook [4] Group 2: Performance of ETFs - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has retreated 3.4% over the past month, while inverse S&P 500 ETFs like ProShares Short S&P500 ETF (SH) and ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) have gained 3.5% and 6.4%, respectively [3] - iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) are recommended for investors, both yielding over 4% annually [6] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Baweja has become more optimistic on bonds due to a slowing economy reducing inflationary concerns, favoring two-year US Treasuries over 10-year bonds [5] - The long end of the yield curve may lag due to declining foreign demand for US government debt, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) losing 1.8% in the past month [6]