POP MART(09992) 智通财经网·2025-03-27 02:02Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains an "outperform" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the target price to HKD 170, reflecting increased market enthusiasm and better-than-expected profit margins in both domestic and North American markets [1] Financial Performance - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at RMB 13.04 billion, a 107% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 3.4 billion, up 186%, driven by rapid growth in new product categories and strong overseas market performance [2] - For the first half of 2024, revenue is expected to grow by 62%, while the second half is projected to see a 143% increase, indicating a significant acceleration in growth [2] Development Trends - The company's IP expansion is accelerating, with domestic and overseas revenue expected to grow by 52% and 107% respectively in 2024, increasing the overseas revenue share by 22 percentage points to 39% [3] - Retail store revenue in mainland China, online sales, and robot store revenue are expected to grow by 44%, 77%, and 26% respectively, with strong same-store growth exceeding expectations [3] - The company added 88 retail stores (38 in mainland China and 50 overseas) and 183 robot stores (110 in mainland China and 73 overseas), bringing the total to 521 retail stores and 2,472 robot stores [3] Product and IP Matrix Expansion - Revenue from key product categories such as figures, plush toys, MEGA, and derivatives is expected to grow by 45%, 1289%, 146%, and 156% respectively, with plush toys and MEGA showing significant revenue contributions [4] - The company’s proprietary IPs, including The Monsters, Molly, SkullPanda, and CryBaby, have seen substantial revenue growth, with increases of 727%, 105%, 28%, and 1537% respectively [4] - The total number of members is projected to increase by 11.73 million to 46.08 million, marking a significant acceleration in customer acquisition and repeat purchases [4] Profitability and Global Strategy - The company's gross margin is expected to reach 66.8% in 2024, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, with operational profit margin (OPM) achieving 31.9%, a 12.3 percentage point increase [5] - The company aims to achieve over RMB 10 billion in overseas revenue by 2025, supported by a diversified product strategy centered around IP [5] - The company plans to launch new IP animation shorts in the summer of 2025, which is expected to further enrich its IP portfolio and drive growth [5]