SHK PPT(00016) 智通财经网·2025-03-27 05:52Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that Hong Kong residential property prices will stabilize this year after a nearly 30% decline from the peak in 2021, with increased trading activity as most cooling measures have been lifted [1] - The firm expects excess inventory to be cleared by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% in transaction volume in the first quarter [1] - Rental yields are expected to drive price increases, with rents growing at a mid-single-digit pace since the influx of new talent to Hong Kong began two years ago [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings per share forecasts for covered Hong Kong developers by an average of 3%, 6%, and 4% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and has adjusted target prices down by an average of 4% [2] - The firm maintains a "buy" rating for New World Development (00016) and Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), with target prices of HKD 86 and HKD 45.7, respectively, offering 8% to 9% recurring free cash flow yields [2] - The firm holds a "sell" rating for Henderson Land Development (00012) with a target price of HKD 18.8 due to concerns over leverage and capital expenditure impacting dividend prospects [2] Group 3 - The property development sector's EBITDA remains a key driver of industry profitability, accounting for about 30% of total EBITDA, down from 60% pre-COVID [3] - The reliance on Hong Kong property development, combined with a weak residential market, has led to a 45% average downward adjustment in consensus earnings per share for the sector over the past five years [3] - The firm believes that a bottom in earnings per share and dividends will only form when Hong Kong residential prices stabilize, with current yields aligning with the average of the past decade [3]