中发高论坛聚焦提振消费：释放内需潜力激发经济活力

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government prioritizes boosting consumption as a key strategy for economic growth, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending and address underlying issues in the economy [1][2][7]. Group 1: Current Economic Context - China's consumption scale is significant, but its proportion in the national economy is relatively low, with a gap of about 20 percentage points compared to developed countries [2]. - The current economic challenges stem from a transition away from investment and export-driven growth towards innovation and consumption-driven growth [1][6]. Group 2: Structural Issues in Consumption - The consumption shortfall is identified as a structural deviation rather than a mere average deficiency, influenced by factors such as low public service levels, urbanization quality, and income distribution disparities [2][3]. - The decline in real estate and infrastructure growth has revealed underlying structural issues in consumption, particularly in service sectors like education, healthcare, and social security [3][6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A comprehensive approach is necessary to boost consumption, focusing on long-term structural reforms rather than short-term stimulus measures [6][7]. - Recommendations include increasing rural residents' pensions to enhance their consumption capacity, which could significantly impact GDP growth [8]. Group 4: Consumption Trends and Future Outlook - The Chinese retail market is showing signs of recovery, with a projected retail sales total of 48.7 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [4]. - Key trends include the acceleration of consumption demand driven by policy support, the rise of silver economy due to aging population, and the growth of smart and green consumption facilitated by digital technology [5][6]. Group 5: Government Support and Fiscal Measures - The government plans to implement various fiscal measures to support consumption, including a special bond issuance of 300 billion yuan to promote consumer goods exchange programs [9]. - Enhancing consumer purchasing power through increased pensions and medical subsidies is a critical focus for the government to stimulate demand [9].