NJTC(601975) 新浪财经·2025-03-27 12:28Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 6.475 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.4% due to the sale of four old vessels, with asset disposal gains of 267 million yuan in 2024 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.9%, with a net profit of 265 million yuan, down 25.0% year-on-year and 39.1% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to weak product oil freight rates in the previous year's Q4 [1] - The average freight rate for MR vessels on the Pacific route in 2024 was $29,779 per day, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The supply tightness logic remains, with sanctions on shadow fleets expected to further reduce effective capacity supply, indicating a continued upward industry cycle [2] - According to Clarksons, the current order backlog for MR vessels accounts for 16% of capacity, while vessels over 15 years old account for 41%, indicating that new orders are insufficient to meet future replacement needs [2] Group 3: Company Strategy - The company optimized its fleet structure and balance sheet by selling four old vessels and repurchasing two leased vessels to reduce interest-bearing debt [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company operated a total of 75 vessels, including 39 MR vessels, and continued to improve shareholder returns through share buybacks, which accounted for 1.05% of total equity in 2024 [3] - The company plans to use capital reserves to cover losses and expedite dividends to investors, enhancing shareholder returns and supporting valuation improvement [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to underperformance in freight rates, the company revised its 2025 profit forecast down by 33.8% to 1.51 billion yuan and introduced a 2026 net profit estimate of 1.52 billion yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 9.7 for 2025 and 9.6 for 2026, with a target price reduction of 11.9% to 3.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price [4]