证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递 6 月数据明显分化，关注行业反内卷进程 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 20 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）各家快递公司发布 6 月经营业绩，顺丰业务量增速维持 30%+，"通达系"中圆 通增速保持领先。2025 年 6 月圆通/韵达/申通/顺丰完成业务量 26.27 / 21.73 /21 ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 55,000 million and 59,000 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 63,034 million to 67,034 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year decline of 51.66% to 54.93% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 54,600 million and 58,600 million yuan, a decrease of 44,184 million to 48,184 million yuan compared to the previous year, reflecting a decline of 42.99% to 46.88% [2] Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 140,427 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122,034 million yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 102,784 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share for the previous year were 0.2532 yuan [1] Reasons for Performance Decline - The international refined oil transportation market has been affected by multiple factors, leading to a significant drop in freight rates year-on-year. For instance, the average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for the MR TC7 route (Singapore to East Coast Australia) was approximately 37,717 USD/day in the first half of 2024, while it is expected to drop to about 19,101 USD/day in the first half of 2025, marking a decline of 49.36% [1]

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：临 2025-018 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预减公告 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 6 月 30 日 （二）业绩预告情况 1.经公司财务部门初步测算，预计公司 2025 年半年度实现归属于上市公司 股东的净利润为 55,000 万元到 59,000 万元，与上年同期相比，将减少 63,034 万 元到 67,034 万元，同比减少 51.66%到 54.93%。 2.预计归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 54,600 万元到 （二）上年同期处置 3 艘老旧 MR 成品油船舶，本期处置 1 艘老旧化学品船， 资产处置收益同比减少 2.1 亿元。 1 业绩预告的具体适用情形：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比下降 50%以上。 招商局南京油运股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度 实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 ...

重要内容提示： 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 证券代码：601975 证券简称：招商南油 公告编号：临 2025-017 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 2025年第一次临时股东大会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、 会议召开和出席情况 (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，大会主持情况等。 会议由公司董事会召集，采用现场会议和网络投票相结合的方式召开。董事 李增忠先生主持会议，符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的有关规定。 (五)公司董事、监事和董事会秘书的出席情况 二、 议案审议情况 (一)非累积投票议案 (一)股东大会召开的时间：2025 年 07 月 03 日 (二)股东大会召开的地点：南京市中山北路 324 号油运大厦 16 楼会议室 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： | 1、出席会议的股东和代理人人数 | 1,864 | | --- | --- | | 2、出席会议的股东所持有表决权的股份总数（股） | 1,618,172,104 | | 3、出席 ...

致：招商局南京油运股份有限公司 根据《中华人民共和国证券法》、《中华人民共和国公司法》以及中国证券监 督管理委员会的相关规定，本所接受贵公司的聘请，指派张建新、张伶轶律师出 席招商局南京油运股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年第一次临时股东大 会，并就公司本次股东大会出具法律意见书。为出具本法律意见书，本所律师出 席了公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会，并审查了公司提供的有关文件。 本所律师按照律师行业公认的业务标准、道德规范和勤勉尽责精神，对公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会的召集及召开的相关法律问题提供如下意见： 一、本次股东大会的召集、召开程序 1 、 公 司 于 2025 年 6 月 17 日 在 上 海 证 券 交 易 所 网 站 (http://www.sse.com.cn/)、于 2025 年 6 月 17 日在中国证券报、上海证券报和 证券时报上发布了《招商局南京油运股份有限公司关于召开 2025 年第一次临时 股东大会的通知》，将公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会的召开方式、会议时间、 地点、内容和程序予以公告、通知。 上海海复律师事务所 关于招商局南京油运股份有限公司 202 ...

Group 1 - The company is holding a shareholder meeting on July 3, 2025, to discuss various agenda items including the revision of the company's articles of association and the election of a non-independent director [1][2]. - The first agenda item involves the revision of the company's articles of association and related documents, in compliance with the updated laws and regulations [1][2]. - The second agenda item is the election of Mr. Liu Zhao as a non-independent director of the company's eleventh board of directors, following a recommendation from the board [2][4]. Group 2 - The company has provided a brief biography of Mr. Liu Zhao, highlighting his educational background and extensive experience in financial management within the shipping industry [2][4].

招商局南京油运股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会会议资料 2025 年 7 月 3 日 招商局南京油运股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东大会议程 时间：2025 年 7 月 3 日上午 9:30 地点：南京市中山北路 324 号油运大厦 16 楼会议室 主持人：丁磊董事长或其授权的主持人 会议议程 一、审议议题 1.关于修订《公司章程》及其附件的议案 2.关于选举刘钊先生为公司第十一届董事会非独立董事的议案 二、股东发言及股东提问。 三、与会股东和股东代表对议案投票表决。 四、大会休会（统计现场投票表决结果）。 五、宣布现场表决结果。 议案一：关于修订《公司章程》及其附件的议案 各位股东： 根据《中华人民共和国公司法（2023 年修订）》《上市公司监管指引 第 3 号——上市公司现金分红（2025 年修订）》《上市公司章程指引（2025 年修订）》《上海证券交易所股票上市规则（2025 年 4 月修订）》《上海证 券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作（2025 年 5 月修 订）》等法律、法规、规范性文件的规定，公司对《招商局南京油运股 份有限公司章程》及其附件《招商局南京油运股 ...

融资融券数据显示，该股最新（6月23日）两融余额为8.99亿元，其中，融资余额为8.96亿元，融券余额 为307.47万元。近5日融资余额合计增加3.11亿元，增幅为53.28%。融券余额合计增加69.28万元，增幅 29.09%。 4月26日公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业收入13.74亿元，同比下降25.29%，实现净 利润2.85亿元，同比下降57.59%。（数据宝） 招商南油6月24日交易公开信息 | 买/ | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万 | 卖出金额（万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖 | | 元） | 元） | | 买一 | 国泰海通证券股份有限公司南京太平南路证券营业部 | 6127.06 | | | 买二 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨团结路第一证券营业部 | 2211.85 | | | 买三 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第二证券营业部 | 1979.45 | | | 买四 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨金融城南环路证券营业 | 1850.85 | | | | 部 | | | | 买五 | 国元证券股份有限公司宁波分公司 | 1 ...