广发证券：一季报临近 关注出口链业绩线索

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates that the export chain is expected to experience a surge driven by EPS expectations as companies like Juxing Technology exceed forecasts in the upcoming annual report preview season in December 2024 [1][2] Group 1: Export Chain Performance - The stock performance of export chain companies shows a cyclical pattern, with price increases typically occurring during earnings seasons when EPS can be earned, while performance tends to decline during earnings gaps [2] - As of now, many companies' 2025 PE ratios have fallen to a favorable range of 10-15X, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][2] - The upcoming first quarter earnings season is a critical time to monitor performance indicators within the export chain [2] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - In the machinery sector, durable goods are expected to follow a cyclical trend, with recommendations for overseas durable goods including Juxing Technology and Yindu Co., and for industrial products, companies like Sany Heavy Industry [3] - In the home appliance sector, leading companies with overseas production capabilities are positioned to benefit from improved export competitiveness due to U.S. tariffs, with a focus on OEMs like Xinbao Co., Ousheng Electric, and Dechang Co. [3] - The textile and apparel sector is anticipated to maintain stable performance in Q1 2025 despite increased tariffs, as many companies have global production layouts that mitigate trade friction impacts [3] Group 3: Automotive Sector Insights - The export of passenger vehicles, particularly PHEVs, is accelerating, while commercial vehicle exports are expected to slow in the short term but have significant long-term market potential [4] - Recommended companies in the passenger vehicle segment include BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Changan Automobile, among others [4] Group 4: Light Industry and Export Dynamics - The light industry sector is expected to see performance differentiation in Q1 2025, with domestic exporters to the U.S. facing profitability pressures, while Vietnamese exporters maintain higher income levels [4]