农夫山泉：“大自然的搬运工” 搬不动了？

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Nongfu Spring in H2 2024 fell short of market expectations across all core businesses, primarily due to intensified price competition in the bottled water segment, leading to significant revenue declines [1][5][11]. Bottled Water Business - The bottled water segment reported revenue of 7.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24%, and a continued slowdown from the previous half-year's decline of 18%, significantly missing the market expectation of 10.09 billion yuan [2][12]. - The introduction of low-priced green bottle water helped increase market share from 27% to around 30%, but overall revenue impact was limited due to aggressive competition from brands like Wahaha and Yibao [12][13]. - The operating profit margin for the bottled water segment dropped to 30%, marking one of the lowest levels in recent years, primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin green bottle water [13][17]. Tea Beverage Business - The tea beverage segment achieved revenue of 8.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, although it also missed market expectations of 9.19 billion yuan [2][14]. - The segment's operating profit margin improved to 46%, making it the most profitable category for the company, aided by cautious spending on marketing [14][18]. - The market share of the company's sugar-free tea brand, Dongfang Shuye, increased to around 70%, benefiting from a strong first-mover advantage [15]. Functional Beverages & Juice - The performance of functional beverages and juice remained lackluster, with limited investment and no significant highlights, despite some individual products performing well [2][16]. Financial Overview - Total revenue for H2 2024 was 20.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, with net profit at 6.07 billion yuan, down 3.8%, marking the first negative growth in the company's semi-annual performance in three years [11]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 57.3%, influenced by the increased share of low-margin green bottle water, despite a decline in core raw material costs [3][17]. - The company maintained a stable expense ratio, with core operating profit declining by 11% year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [3][18].