东吴证券：给予国联民生买入评级

Core Viewpoint - Guolian Minsheng reported a decline in overall performance due to investment income drag, while the wealth management business showed good performance, leading to a "buy" rating from Dongwu Securities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Guolian Minsheng achieved operating revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 400 million yuan, down 40.8% year-on-year, with an EPS of 0.14 yuan and ROE of 2.2%, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q4, the company reported operating revenue of 680 million yuan, an increase of 51.3% year-on-year but a decrease of 26.2% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2 million yuan, turning profitable year-on-year but down 99.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Brokerage and Investment Income - In 2024, the brokerage business revenue reached 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, accounting for 26.9% of total revenue; Q4 brokerage revenue was 320 million yuan, up 156% year-on-year [2] - Interest net income was -10 million yuan, a decline of 223% year-on-year, primarily due to increased financing scale and decreased other debt investment scale [2] - Investment income (including fair value) was 980 million yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in the fair value of derivative financial instruments [3] Group 3: Asset Management and Future Outlook - The asset management business generated revenue of 660 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.0%, with assets under management reaching 142.5 billion yuan, up 21.5% year-on-year [3] - The company adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 878 million yuan and 1.007 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 121% and 15% [4] - The company maintains a positive outlook on internal growth and external expansion, sustaining a "buy" rating [4]