中信证券(600030)：自营业务驱动业绩增长彰显龙头韧性

Core Insights - The company reported strong Q4 2024 results, with adjusted revenue of 161 billion and annual revenue of 579 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 35.5% and 5.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 49 billion for Q4 and 217 billion for the year, showing increases of 48.3% and 10.1% respectively [1] Group 1: Business Performance - Brokerage business revenue for Q4 2024 was 35.6 billion, up 48.9% year-on-year, while annual revenue reached 107.1 billion, growing 4.8% [2] - Asset management revenue for Q4 2024 was 30.3 billion, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, with annual revenue at 105.1 billion, up 6.7% [2] - Proprietary trading revenue for Q4 2024 was 46.8 billion, down 22.8% year-on-year, but annual revenue increased to 263.5 billion, up 20.6% [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average daily trading volume for stock funds in Q4 2024 was 20,684 billion, a significant increase of 119.3% year-on-year, contributing to the growth in brokerage revenue [2] - The company's proprietary financial asset scale reached 8,618 billion by the end of 2024, a 20.4% increase from the previous year, with an investment return rate of 3.06% [3] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Investment banking revenue for Q4 2024 was 13.4 billion, up 29.5% year-on-year, but annual revenue fell to 41.6 billion, down 33.9% due to stricter regulatory policies impacting underwriting volumes [4] - Credit business revenue for Q4 2024 was 1.6 billion, down 78.1% year-on-year, with annual revenue at 10.8 billion, down 73.1% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued policy support for the capital market, which may enhance trading activity and positively impact future earnings [5] - Revised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 270 billion, 281 billion, and 283 billion respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 24.5%, 3.8%, and 1.0% [5]