2 01 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 3 / 4 / 01 1 . 1 | 表 | ：42家上市券商2025E盈利预期 | | | 图 ：交投活跃下成交额及两融历史新高 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：亿元 | 2024 | 2025E | 同比增速 | | | 调整后营业收入 | 4,219 | 5,553 | 31.6% | | | 经纪业务 | 1,060 | 1,546 | 45.8% | | | 投行业务 | 306 | 342 | 11.9% | | | 资管业务 | 441 | 458 | 3.8% | | | 自营业务 | 1,789 | 2,316 | 29.4% | | | 信用业务 | 334 | 514 | 53.9% | | | 归母净利润 | 1,483 | 2,142 | 44.4% | | 注：调整后营业收入=营业收入-其他业务成本；自营业务收入=投资收益+公允价值变动损益-联营合营投资收益+汇兑净损益； 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 5 • 2025年交投活跃下上市券商业绩显著改善，预计42家上市券商2025 ...

突发点评 2026 年 3 月 23 日 地 缘 风 险 急 剧 升 温 黄 金 、 亚 股 大 幅 下 挫 产品及投资方案部 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 3－ \ ▪ 受美国向伊朗发出最后通牒、伊朗威胁封锁霍尔木兹海峡等消息影响，国际期油高位上行，现货金价大幅下 跌近 8%，亚太市场普遍急跌，恒指午后曾下跌超 1,000 点 (约 4%) 至 24,200 关口，科技及金融板块跌幅 居前，预期港股短线走势受制于中东冲突发展。 ▪ 伊朗冲突的走向与市场影响存在巨大预期分化，不同判断的背后，目前以下问题无法验证，难有答案：(1) 冲突烈度下降后，通航能够恢复到什么程度；(2) 美联储是更看重表征通胀指标还是更关心实际的就业情 况，这些问题可能只有到了 4 月才能逐步明朗。 ▪ 出于特朗普个人与家族政治遗产的考量，美国中期选举或是影响美国战争与外交行为的核心变量。当前初选 阶段已经开启，尽管尚处于竞选早期，但共和党在选举中表现欠佳，或已有风向标意义。从战争行为看，目 前共和党与 MAGA 基本盘对美以伊战争仍保持整体团结。我们判断霍尔木兹海峡僵局或难以通过军事行动 迅速实现突破，随着进入二季度 ...

中国经济网北京3月23日讯 灿瑞科技(688061.SH)今日收报31.78元，跌幅10.00%。 2022年10月18日，灿瑞科技在上交所科创板上市，发行价格为112.69元/股，发行数量为 19,276,800股，保荐机构（主承销商）为中信证券股份有限公司，保荐代表人为谢雯、苗涛。 该股上市首日开盘报100.68元，开盘即破发。目前该股处于破发状态。 灿瑞科技首次公开发行股票募集资金总额为217,230.26万元，扣除发行费用后募集资金净额为 199,997.60万元。该公司最终募集资金净额较原计划多44,949.41万元。灿瑞科技于2022年10月13日披 露的招股说明书显示，其拟募集资金155,048.19万元，拟分别用于高性能传感器研发及产业化项目、 电源管理芯片研发及产业化项目、专用集成电路封装建设项目、研发中心建设项目和补充流动资金。 灿瑞科技2022年年度权益分派实施公告显示，本次利润分配及转增股本以方案实施前的公司总股 本77,106,974股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.55元（含税），以资本公积金向全体股东每股转增0.49 股，共计派发现金红利42,408,835.70元，转增37,782 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the chairman of Overseas Chinese Town Group and the vice chairman of CITIC Securities focused on strengthening strategic cooperation and promoting win-win development [2] - Overseas Chinese Town Group aims to enhance its business layout and development by integrating culture and tourism, optimizing existing resources, and pursuing sustainable high-quality growth [2] - CITIC Securities expressed gratitude for the long-term trust from Overseas Chinese Town Group and highlighted its commitment to providing financial support and accelerating the implementation of cooperative projects [2] Group 2 - Key executives from both companies participated in the meeting, including directors and managers from CITIC Securities and Overseas Chinese Town Group [3]

证券研究报告 金融 理财评级实行，券商并表监管启动 1）银行：LPR 环比维持不变，有助于呵护银行息差。《理财公司监管评级 暂行办法》印发，评级要素由定性和定量两类评级指标组成，数值越大反映 机构风险越大。上周上海银行发布业绩快报，中信银行、平安银行发布年报， 上海银行归母净利润与营业收入双增。2）证券：上周全 A 日均成交额较前 一周-12%至 2.2 万亿元；融资余额站稳 2.6 万亿元。中证协正式启动并表管 理报告及并表风控指标报送工作，首批包含 6 家并表监管试点券商，行业并 表监管步入实质性落地执行阶段，看好券商板块战略性配置机会。3）保险： 上周保险股先涨后跌，成为市场情绪波动有代表性的注脚。 重点公司及动态 1）银行：推荐质优个股，如南京、成都、上海。2）证券：推荐头部券商如 中信 AH、国泰海通 AH、广发 AH；优质区域券商如东方 AH、国元。3）保 险：推荐优质龙头。 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 22 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十二周） 投资机会方面银行>证券>保险。LPR 环比维持不变，有助于呵护银行息差。 《理财公司监管评级暂行办法》印发，评级数值越大反映机构风险越大。外 围不确定 ...

（013013/013014）跟踪中证新能源汽车指数（399976），选取涉及锂电池、充电桩、新能源整车等业 务的上市公司股票作为成份股，前十大成分股中包含了比亚迪、宁德时代、汇川技术、华友钴业、三花 智控等行业龙头。申万二级行业分类中，电池权重占比高达46%。 中信证券研报指出，美伊战争正向着长期化方向发展，霍尔木兹海峡的"封锁"推动原油价格飙涨，原油 价格持续高位将在全球范围内提升纯电与低馈电混动车型竞争力，中国车企技术优势有望加速转化为全 球份额。 每日经济新闻 3月23日，A股三大指数大幅调整，新能源板块逆市上涨，相关ETF集体拉升，截止10点01分，新能源车 ETF华夏（515030）涨幅1.10%，成交额已达4.57亿元，持仓股富临精工、比亚迪、天花新能、容百科 技、赣锋锂业、盛新锂能等股涨幅居前。 新能源车 ETF华夏（515030）是目前市场上规模最大的新能源车主题ETF，与其联接基金 消息面上，3月20日，国际油价继续走高。布伦特原油期货盘中涨幅一度达到3%，当日收于104.41美元/ 桶；WTI原油收于98.09美元/桶，涨幅超2%。受中东局势影响，国际油价近期大幅攀升，国内成品油价 格也 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening market stability mechanisms and suggests focusing on left-side opportunities within the sector. It highlights that external risk events may fluctuate, but the market's resilience remains strong, with a trend of incremental capital inflow expected to continue [5]. - The introduction of the Financial Law draft is seen as a significant step towards enhancing regulatory frameworks and promoting high-quality development in the financial sector. This law aims to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and support long-term growth [16][17]. - The insurance sector is advised to be actively monitored, as it continues to increase its equity investment ratio despite market downturns. The report notes that the solvency ratio of life insurance companies remains robust, providing a buffer against potential market pressures [13][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - As of March 21, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%. The CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.19%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.26% [10]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The report indicates that the insurance sector is guided by the two sessions to pursue high-quality development. The solvency ratio of life insurance companies is at 115%, significantly above the regulatory threshold of 50%, allowing for continued investment in equities [13]. - The proportion of insurance funds allocated to stocks and funds has increased to 14.8%, up by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year. The report suggests that the current valuation of the insurance sector presents a good cost-performance ratio [13]. (b) Securities - The Financial Law draft aims to enhance financial regulation and promote high-quality development. It establishes a comprehensive legal framework for financial activities, emphasizing risk prevention and regulatory clarity [16][17]. - The report notes that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has reported a significant increase in the virtual asset market, with a daily trading volume increase of 89.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing market and regulatory framework [21][23]. 3. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report includes detailed valuations for key companies in the sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," including China Ping An, China Life, and Huatai Securities, among others. The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate strong growth potential [6].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI is driving the storage industry, which is currently in the mid-stage of a super boom cycle, with supply shortages expected to last at least until 2027 [1] Group 1: Storage Industry Outlook - The storage industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, supported by better-than-expected performance and guidance from key players like Kioxia, as well as an increase in NAND contract prices [1] - The industry is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance until the end of 2027, with a strong recommendation for storage module companies due to their short-term performance potential [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report highlights four key investment directions in the context of the AI era, focusing on the need for bandwidth and capacity upgrades [2] - Storage solution providers are essential for CUBE, with a focus on companies that have support from storage manufacturers and first-mover advantages [2] - Semiconductor equipment is benefiting from the upgrade in advanced packaging demands, with a focus on etching, bonding, and thinning equipment [2] - Advanced packaging is seen as a critical breakthrough for high-end storage, with Chinese manufacturers leading in capabilities and expanding capacity [2] - Logic chip companies are expected to enhance their competitiveness and accelerate industrialization, particularly in 3D structured logic chips, benefiting from AI-driven demand [2]

过去三周板块超额收益率持续扩张，动力煤子板块表现最佳。 中东冲突爆发三周以来，国内煤价表现虽然低于预期，但海外市场的油、气价格持续上涨，整体价格表 现优于俄乌冲突同期。该行认为，此轮中东冲突对全球煤炭供给收缩的影响向价格传导是渐进式的，油 气价格维持高位有望带动全球高卡煤消费增加，推升亚太地区煤价中枢，利好国内煤价预期持续改善。 国内煤价或结束短期弱势震荡的局面，进入稳步上涨通道。 中东冲突爆发后，国内煤价并未跟随海外能源价格大涨，而以弱势震荡为主，这与国内电力耗煤逐步进 入淡季有一定的关系。但该行认为短期三大因素将助力动力煤价进入稳步上涨通道：1)化工盈利改善或 推动化工耗煤需求增加，带动煤价上涨；2)国内前两月行业数据同比呈现改善，全年基本面或好于预 期；3)冲突持续下，海外煤价持续保持溢价。同时，焦煤价格在产业链补库、焦化盈利改善的预期下， 也呈现稳中看涨的预期。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，中东地缘冲突持续已超过三周，国际油、气价格上涨显示出 较好的持续性。目前，虽然动力煤需求短期面临淡季，但化工耗煤需求或持续释放，推动煤价止跌反 弹;焦煤价格在短期需求的改善下，也稳中看涨。叠加海外因素的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the electronic industry will continue to show significant performance divergence in Q1 2026, driven by ongoing price increases in the upstream and midstream sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - Storage is expected to perform the best due to price increases, with both storage chip design and module manufacturers showing high growth in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [1][2]. - Other sectors such as PCB, power, analog, and advanced semiconductor manufacturing are also expected to maintain a favorable outlook [1][2]. - Conversely, the consumer electronics sector is under pressure due to storage price increases and shortages, with Android and IoT facing greater challenges, while the Apple supply chain remains relatively stable [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The segments anticipated to show strong performance include storage, AI PCB, power, analog, advanced manufacturing, and leading companies in the Apple supply chain [1][2]. - Looking ahead to Q2 2026, the trends from Q1 are expected to continue, with storage and PCB remaining in a high-growth phase, while consumer electronics will continue to face challenges [1][2]. - For the entire year of 2026, the electronic sector is viewed positively, with "price increases + AI + self-control" identified as the dominant theme, while consumer electronics may see significant turning points in the second half of the year [1][2].