Group 1 - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025/2026, with current trading at 26.9/11.0 times P/E and 0.9/0.8 times P/B for 2025/2026, raising the target price by 10.0% to HKD 1.43, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 13.3 billion, with a 2H24 revenue of CNY 6.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The cash EBITDA for 2024 is CNY 3 billion, representing a growth of approximately 20% [1] - The company’s milk yield continues to improve, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.6% to 12.8 tons per cow in 2024, and the herd size is expected to reach 491,000 by the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company benefits from a decrease in feed costs by 16.7% and an improvement in milk yield, leading to a slight expansion of gross margin by 2.8 percentage points in 2024 [2] - Despite the decline in raw milk prices, the company’s cash EBITDA increased by 20% due to improved gross margins [2] - The industry is experiencing a reduction in herd size, with 85-90% of the industry facing losses, and a continued decrease in herd size is expected into 2025 [3] Group 3 - The company is positioned well in the industry downturn, with a projected domestic raw milk supply gap of approximately high single digits to 10% in 2024, and potential stabilization of raw milk prices anticipated in 2025 [3] - The industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, and it is considered a favorable time for left-side investments [3]
中金：维持现代牧业(01117)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价上调至1.43港元