Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 新浪财经·2025-03-28 02:31Core Viewpoint - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 54.45 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.61%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.41 billion yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year. However, the Q4 net profit was significantly lower than expected due to rising alumina prices impacting costs [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved an aluminum production volume of 2.9383 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.45% [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 13.23%, with Q4 gross margin at 9.60%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.98 percentage points due to a significant rise in domestic alumina prices [1]. - The average price of alumina in Q4 was 5,330.02 yuan per ton, up 35.64% quarter-on-quarter, which exerted considerable pressure on the company's costs [1]. Market Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven by supply constraints as domestic aluminum production capacity approaches its ceiling, alongside a moderate growth in demand due to global manufacturing recovery [2]. - The anticipated decline in alumina prices due to new production capacity coming online is expected to enhance profits in the electrolytic aluminum segment, indicating a potential profit expansion cycle over the next three years [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.98, 2.48, and 3.13 yuan respectively [3]. - The target price for the company is set at 20.79 yuan, based on a PE ratio of 10.5 for 2025, reflecting the company's hydroelectric advantages and potential profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [3].