Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-03-28 02:36Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a significant drop in the agricultural pesticide market expected to recover in 2025 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 7.31 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, down 64.3%, with earnings per share at 0.27 yuan, aligning with market expectations - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 2.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while net profit was 83 million yuan, up 89.9% [1]. Industry Trends - The price of glyphosate continues to decline, with the average price in 2024 at 54,300 yuan per ton, a 34% decrease from 2023 - In Q1 2025, the average price is approximately 45,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.6% - The future competition may hinge on the efficiency of refined glyphosate, with potential cost reduction opportunities [1][2]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to acquire Shandong Huimeng to strengthen its position in refined glyphosate and fungicides - Shandong Huimeng has advanced technologies in DCTF and refined glyphosate production, which could enhance the company's competitive edge in the pesticide market - The global agricultural pesticide market, after a significant downturn in 2024, is expected to stabilize and grow in 2025, driven by improved weather conditions and increased planting areas in the U.S. and Brazil [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast down by 12.9% to 563 million yuan and introduced a 2026 net profit forecast of 702 million yuan - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13x for 2025 and 11x for 2026 - The target price is maintained at 10.0 yuan, suggesting a 9% upside potential based on the current valuation [3].