草甘膦&草铵膦行业近况交流 20250722 摘要 草甘膦价格受多重因素影响持续上涨，目前价格在 24,800 至 25,000 元/吨，部分中间商报价高达 26,000 元/吨，预计年底可能涨至 27,000 元/吨并保持稳定。库存大幅下降，从 8 万多吨降至 4 万多吨，进一步支 撑价格。 国内草甘膦生产厂家开工率维持高位，普遍在 85%以上，但部分厂家因 产品指标调整和环保因素出现阶段性停产或减产，如兴发集团、江山股 份等，导致实际产量有所下降。 草甘膦需求端稳健增长，国内外订单充足，厂家订单已排至 9 月下旬， 美国客户需求增加，叠加北半球和国内需求释放预期，未来需求有望持 续增长。 拜耳草甘膦致癌诉讼案悬而未决，导致其产能大幅削减，影响海外产能 开工率，间接推动草甘膦价格上涨。拜耳计划通过外包方式继续生产， 短期内不会退出北美市场。 草铵膦价格走弱，主要由于目标客户群体差异和国内外产能相对较少， 客户倾向于囤积草甘膦，导致草铵膦采购量减少，短期内提价意愿不明 显。 草甘膦价格上涨的主要原因包括墨西哥 6 到 8 月份春耕季节订单增加，以及拜 耳和孟山都 37 万吨草甘膦致癌争议导致部分客户将订单转移 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

利尔化学股份有限公司 证券代码：002258 证券简称：利尔化学 作用，积极推进制剂业务的发展；持续增加有效的研发投入， 建好上海研发中心，做好和成都研发中心的协同，加强对外合 作；全面推进落实《安全生产治本攻坚三年行动方案》，确保 安全生产。 3、公司对未来草铵膦的价格趋势有什么样的看法？ 答：随着草铵膦价格逐步走低，市场需求量继续增长，公 司依然看好草铵膦和精草铵膦的未来发展，但目前行业竞争依 旧激烈，公司将持续提升现有优势，稳步扩大市场份额。 4、公司精草铵膦项目建设进展？ 答：湖南津市 2 万吨/年酶法精草铵膦项目已经投产，生 产情况正常。 5、精草铵膦的市场前景如何？ 答：公司非常看好精草铵膦的市场空间，未来随着越来越 多企业产品登记的取得、市场推广开展、生产技术的改进，市 场需求的规模将持续增长。公司作为目前国内最大规模的精草 铵膦原药生产企业，将持续加快推进实施精草铵膦在海外多个 国家的登记和市场布局工作，积极做好市场铺垫。 6、公司的氯虫苯甲酰胺建设进展如何？ 答：公司非常看好氯虫的市场前景，前期在国内外做了大 量的市场布局，并花了大量精力在优化生产工艺，目前生产装 置正在有序建设之中。 7、 ...

Group 1 - Glyphosate is the second most used herbicide globally, with significant market demand growth driven by the ban and restriction of paraquat and increasing resistance issues with glyphosate [1] - Glyphosate has a unique herbicidal mechanism that inhibits the synthesis of glutamine in plants, leading to ammonia accumulation and cell metabolism disruption, establishing its important position in the pesticide market [1] - The global market share for glyphosate is projected to reach $499 million in 2024 [1] Group 2 - China is the largest producer of glyphosate, with a total production capacity of 151,000 tons by 2025, including major producers like Inner Mongolia Lingsheng (75,000 tons) and Shandong Yisheng (24,000 tons) [2] - BASF plans to cease glyphosate production at its Knapsack and Frankfurt facilities by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively [2] - UPL's production capacity is only 8,000 tons [2] Group 3 - As of July 14, 2025, the average market price for glyphosate raw powder is 43,700 yuan per ton, below the industry cost of 56,900 yuan per ton [3] - Current inventory levels in the glyphosate industry have decreased by 8.94% week-on-week and 27.3% from the year's peak [3] - Demand from regions like South America and Southeast Asia is expected to drive price recovery, with some companies already scheduling orders into late August [3]

Group 1 - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting focused on the construction of a national unified market and the high-quality development of the marine economy, leading to strong performance in related sectors [1] - From July 1 to July 10, the photovoltaic index rose by 3.97%, the green power index increased by 4.08%, and the marine economy index peaked at 7.99%, all outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index during the same period [1] - The chemical industry, as a fundamental sector of the national economy, is expected to benefit from national strategic planning [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the governance of "involution-style" competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity, initiating a new round of capacity reduction [1] - On July 2, multiple contracts for polysilicon futures hit the limit, with the main contract closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, reaching a recent high; silicon material prices also rebounded, with the average transaction price for N-type re-investment material at 34,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.87% [1] - CITIC Futures analysis indicated that this round of price increase is a correction of previous overselling, as prices had fallen below the cash costs of leading enterprises, driving profit recovery expectations [1] Group 3 - The marine economy is projected to surpass 10 trillion yuan in national marine production value in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% in the first quarter of this year [1] - The deep-sea technology sector is expected to have broad prospects, with predictions that marine production value will exceed 13 trillion yuan by 2025, and deep-sea technology industries will account for over 25% [1] - Various regions are actively planning, with cities like Qingdao, Hainan, and Xiamen focusing on marine technology innovation and deep-sea equipment, while Tianfeng Securities suggests paying attention to opportunities in deep-sea materials, equipment, and intelligent applications [1] Group 4 - Starting in 2024, China will implement a quota system for HFCs, controlling over 80% of the global quota, creating a unique business model [2] - Benefiting from favorable factors related to refrigerant quotas, companies in the refrigerant sector, including Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Yonghe Co., Ltd., and Dongyangguang, are all expected to report significant increases in their mid-year results, with four companies seeing growth exceeding 120% [2] - The pesticide industry is benefiting from the "one certificate, one product" policy, with companies like Jiangshan Co., Ltd. and Lier Chemical also expected to report increased mid-year results, indicating a shift towards scale and intensive transformation in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical is expected to significantly increase its profitability in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising prices and sales of its core product, glyphosate, alongside cost optimization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Lier Chemical's revenue was 7.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.55% year-on-year, and the net profit was 604 million yuan, down 66.68% [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a decline of 6.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, a drop of 64.34% [2]. - The company anticipates a strong recovery in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The price of glyphosate remains low, but the price of Lier Chemical's other core product, glufosinate, has rebounded from 23,500 yuan per ton in April 2025 to 25,500 yuan per ton by July 7, 2025, marking an increase of 8.5% [3]. - The company has expanded its market share in key regions such as Brazil and Argentina through a dual strategy of targeting large clients and overseas registrations [3]. - Domestic demand for glufosinate is rapidly increasing due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, supporting the company's production capacity growth [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Lier Chemical has established seven production bases in China, enhancing its competitive edge and ensuring a stable global supply chain [1][4]. - The company holds over 50% market share in glufosinate domestically and approximately 30% globally, benefiting from economies of scale [4]. - As of 2024, Lier Chemical's production capacities include 86,300 tons for active ingredients, 81,200 tons for formulations, and 123,500 tons for chemical products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43.4%, 36.2%, and 50.6% [4]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to further expand its industry chain, including a proposed acquisition of Shandong Huimeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with the latest figures showing a rise of 70,000 ounces to a total of 73.9 million ounces as of the end of June [2] - By the end of 2027, China aims to have over 100,000 high-power charging facilities nationwide, focusing on local economic development and the promotion of new energy vehicles [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Index Company will launch several specialized indices on July 21, including the Shanghai Stock Exchange Specialized New Index and the China Securities Specialized New 100 Index [3] Group 2 - A new mandatory national standard for passenger car braking systems will take effect on January 1, 2026, introducing requirements for electric transmission braking systems and emergency braking signals [3] - An international standard for testing scenarios of autonomous vehicle systems has been officially released, detailing evaluation processes and testing methods [4] - The U.S. President has signed an executive order extending the delay for "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1, affecting imports from 14 countries with varying tariff rates [8][5] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, the Nasdaq down 0.92%, and the S&P 500 down 0.79%, impacting stocks of Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. [5] - Companies such as Nissan and Toyota experienced significant stock drops, with Nissan down over 7% and Toyota down nearly 4% [5] - The market sentiment is shifting towards a balanced approach, with a focus on large-cap stocks and potential inflows of incremental capital in July [8][9]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down 0.79%. Notable declines included Tesla at 6.79%, Apple at 1.69%, and Google A at 1.53%, while Amazon saw a slight increase of 0.03% [1] International Trade and Policy - The first wave of tax letters from Trump will affect 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective from August 1. The EU is reportedly close to reaching an agreement [2] - An EU spokesperson indicated that negotiations for a US-EU trade agreement have made progress, with a principle agreement expected [3] Company Developments - OpenAI is incurring high costs for talent retention, with equity compensation accounting for 119% of its revenue. Meanwhile, Meta is actively recruiting talent, with a senior AI executive from Apple set to join [4] - Samsung Electronics is expected to see a 39% decline in operating profit for Q2 due to weak AI chip sales [5] - Figure's CEO stated that humanoid robots are key to AGI and plans to deploy 100,000 units within four years [6] - Colin Murdoch, Chief Business Officer of Google DeepMind, announced that Isomorphic Labs, which designs drugs using AI, is preparing for its first human trials [7] Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has revised its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now anticipating a potential cut in September, with a terminal rate of 3% to 3.25% [8] Domestic Industry Highlights DRAM Industry - Changxin Storage, a major domestic DRAM manufacturer, has initiated its IPO counseling, with a registered capital of 601.9 billion yuan and a valuation of 140 billion yuan. The success of Changxin and Yangtze Memory is expected to significantly impact the domestic semiconductor industry [11] Photovoltaic Industry - Major polysilicon manufacturers have raised prices for certain orders to 37 yuan per kilogram due to recent policy changes and industry self-discipline. The overall production of polysilicon is projected to increase, albeit at a limited rate [12] Petrochemical Industry - The price of butanone has risen by 4.54% to 8,267 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month increase of 28.51%. Supply disruptions due to maintenance at major production facilities are contributing to price increases [13] Automotive Components - A new mandatory national standard for passenger car brake systems will take effect on January 1, 2026, introducing new requirements for electric transmission brake systems and single-pedal braking [15] Company Earnings Forecasts - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit of 6.727 billion to 6.927 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11%, driven by growth in cloud computing [16] - Rockchip anticipates a net profit of 520 million to 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 185% to 195%, supported by AIoT product demand [17] - Loxin Technology projects a net profit of 250 million to 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65% to 78% [17] - China Power expects a net profit of 800 million to 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.28% to 141.90% [17]

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have announced significant developments, including management changes, stock trading fluctuations, and major contracts, which may present investment opportunities and risks for investors [2]. Group 1: Management Changes and Legal Issues - Scanda's chairman and general manager, Li Yuejie, along with director Zhu Chuncheng, have been subjected to criminal coercive measures due to alleged violations related to information disclosure [3]. - Longhong High-Tech is planning to acquire 100% equity of Guangxi Changke, leading to a stock suspension for up to 10 trading days [6]. Group 2: Stock Trading and Performance - New Asia Electronics reported abnormal stock trading with a cumulative price deviation exceeding 20% over three days, while confirming that its operations are normal and consistent with previously disclosed share reduction plans [5]. - ST Tiexin announced the removal of risk warnings and a name change, which will increase the trading limit from 5% to 10% [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance Forecasts - Industrial Fulian expects a net profit increase of 36.84% to 39.12% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by a surge in AI-related business [18]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit increase of 55.62% to 67.59% for the same period, benefiting from integrated operations and rising cobalt prices [19]. - Guoli Co. forecasts a staggering net profit increase of 130.91% to 158.08% for the first half of 2025, attributed to new product and market expansions [20]. - Bangji Technology expects a net profit increase of 166.77% to 200.91%, driven by increased sales from direct sales channels [21]. - Lier Chemical predicts a net profit increase of 185.24% to 196% due to rising product sales and cost reduction efforts [25]. Group 4: Major Contracts and Projects - Huadian Science and Technology signed significant contracts worth approximately RMB 25.16 billion for coal handling and transportation systems [41]. - Aerospace Engineering is the first candidate for a project with a bid of RMB 23.92 billion for a coal gasification facility [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][16] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year profit growth of 185.24% to 196.00% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan [1][9] - The price of glyphosate is anticipated to rebound after a prolonged decline, with the current market conditions indicating a potential bottoming out [3][15] - The company has deepened cooperation with major clients, resulting in stable sales despite a significant drop in product prices [2][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 2.65 billion to 2.75 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 185.24% to 196.00% [1][9] - The second quarter is projected to yield a net profit of 1.12 billion to 1.22 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 148.89% to 171.11% compared to the previous year [1][9] Product Pricing and Sales - The prices of chlorinated pyridine herbicides have increased, and sales volumes have improved, particularly for products like toxic herbicides [2][10] - The company has registered its glyphosate formulations in eight countries, indicating a low penetration rate in overseas markets and significant growth potential [2][10] Market Conditions - Glyphosate prices have been in decline since 2022, with a current average price of 43,700 yuan per ton, down 88.19% from the end of 2021 [3][11] - The industry is experiencing a seasonal peak in demand for glyphosate exports to South America, with production reaching historical highs [12][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 4.02 billion, 5.19 billion, and 6.43 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][16] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.50, 0.65, and 0.80 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.4, 18.1, and 14.6 [4][16]