歌尔股份(002241)：AI/AR眼镜有望成为增长驱动

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 100.95 billion with a year-on-year increase of 2.41% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.67 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 144.93% [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.31 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%. The net profit for the same period was 320 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 63.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 71.5% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 10.3%, down from the previous year [1] - In 2H24, the precision components product line generated revenue of 8.74 billion, down 11.2% year-on-year but up 38.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.8% [2] - The smart acoustic complete products line had a revenue of 13.51 billion, down 9.5% year-on-year but up 5.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 9.1% [2] - The smart hardware products line saw a revenue of 37.35 billion, up 27.1% year-on-year and up 88.2% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a gross margin of 9.1% [2] Asset Impairment and Future Outlook - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of 557 million in the second half of 2024, compared to 243 million in the same period last year, which negatively impacted profit margins [3] - For 2025, the company anticipates an improvement in profitability, with smart acoustic complete product revenue expected to grow by 6% year-on-year and gross margin projected to improve to 9.9% [3] - Global VR shipment is expected to decline by 12% to 6.5 million units in 2025, which may negatively affect the company's smart hardware product revenue [3] - Collaborations with Meta and Xiaomi on AI glasses and XR products are expected to gradually become new growth drivers starting in 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised down its global VR shipment expectations, forecasting net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.29 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.28 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, which is a downward adjustment of 18% and 13% for 2025 and 2026 [4] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is projected at 24.2x for 2025, while the company is assigned a PE valuation of 31.13x for 2025, down from 33.6x for 2024, maintaining a target price of 29.26 [4]