CMES(601872) 新浪财经·2025-03-28 06:32Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for 2024, with revenue slightly declining while net profit showed growth, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenging market conditions [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 25.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; Q4 revenue was 6.5 billion, down 5.2% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the year was 5.11 billion, an increase of 5.6%; Q4 net profit was 1.74 billion, up 61.1% year-on-year and 99.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-recurring net profit for the year was 5.02 billion, up 8.1%; Q4 non-recurring net profit was 1.73 billion, an increase of 68.9% year-on-year and 104.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Total cash dividends for the year amounted to 2.08 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.7%, increasing to approximately 43.3% when including share buybacks [1] Oil Transportation - In Q4, VLCC revenue significantly outperformed the industry, with oil transportation revenue at 2.22 billion, down 8.5% year-on-year; net profit was 570 million, a decrease of 22% year-on-year but an increase of 49% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's VLCC fleet TCE outperformed the index, with a year-on-year decrease of about 10% and a slight reduction in effective operating days [1] Market Outlook - The demand for VLCC in the second half of 2024 is expected to be subdued due to OPEC's production cuts and weak demand from Chinese refineries, leading to an overall weak cargo volume [2] - The outlook for VLCC remains positive due to strong supply constraints and a potential recovery in demand as global inventories are low and new refineries in China come online [2] - The tightening of sanctions on non-compliant trade from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia may benefit the formal market, increasing demand expectations [3] Dry Bulk Shipping - In Q4, dry bulk revenue was 1.87 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year; net profit was 240 million, a decrease of 27% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The BDI index increased by 27% year-on-year, driven by active long-distance exports despite a decrease in iron ore shipments [3] - The mid-term outlook for dry bulk shipping remains positive due to a slowdown in supply growth and moderate demand increases [4] Container Shipping - In Q4, container shipping revenue was 1.38 billion, down 7%; net profit was 840 million, an increase of 257% year-on-year and 263% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company capitalized on the Q4 peak season in the Asian market, increasing capacity significantly [4] Roll-on/Roll-off Shipping - In Q4, revenue from roll-on/roll-off shipping was 510 million, down 12%; net profit was 90 million, an increase of 80% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [5] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2026 is 6.48 billion and 7.66 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 8.18 billion, corresponding to current PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [5] - The company’s valuation is considered attractive, leading to an upgrade in the rating from "recommend" to "strongly recommend" based on optimistic mid-term outlooks for oil and dry bulk shipping [5]