行业研究丨深度报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 岁暮回暖，超越季律 ——交运行业 2025 年四季度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望 2025 年四季度，我们看好四类投资机会：1）物流：政策驱动快递"反内卷"，四季度及 明年利润弹性可观。物流企业出海进入 1-N 的新阶段；2）航空：获益于商务回暖，出行需求逐 步爬坡，叠加中长期供给刚性收紧，航油成本改善明显，行业有望迎来收入与成本共振；3）海 运：关注季节性+非季节性因素带来的共振：1、OPEC+产能恢复，VLCC 供给约束持续，油运 Q4 景气可期；2、散运：四季度西芒杜投产将提振行业上行预期；3、集运：关税扰动下远洋集 运需求和景气度较博弈；4）高速公路：高速公路公司估值以及股息率重回高性价比区间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 张银晗 胡俊文 魏爱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas ETF (159697) opened with a gain of 1.33%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The oil and gas ETF (159697) opened at 1.140 yuan [1] - Since its establishment on April 17, 2023, the ETF has achieved a return of 11.84% [1] - The ETF's performance over the past month has been a return of 6.81% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Major stocks within the ETF include: - China National Petroleum Corporation (down 0.22%) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (up 0.36%) - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (down 0.07%) - Guanghui Energy (unchanged) - Jereh Oilfield Services (down 2.47%) - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (up 2.97%) - XinAo Group (down 0.16%) - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (up 1.54%) - Offshore Oil Engineering Company (down 0.36%) - China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (up 0.31%) [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002320 | 海峡股份 | 13.59 | -7.55% | 165.25万 | 22.78 Z | | 600179 | 安通控股 | 4.29 | -6.94% | 169.03万 | 7.39 Z | | 603162 | 海通发展 | 10.63 | -6.01% | 39.83万 | 4.25 乙 | | 002040 | 南京港 | 11.53 | -4.79% | 41.41万 | 4.84亿 | | 000905 | 厦门港务 | 9.59 | -4.48% | 55.45万 | 5.39 Z | | 600026 | 中远海能 | 12.20 | -3.10% | 40.17万 | 4.93亿 | | 601872 | 招商轮船 | 8.51 | -2.63% | 69.86万 | 5.95亿 | | 600798 | 宁波海运 | 4.13 | -2.13% | 56.51万 | 2.34亿 | | 920571 | 国航远 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船) announced its external guarantee balance, indicating a significant portion of its net assets is tied up in guarantees [1] Summary by Categories External Guarantees - The total external guarantee balance of the company and its subsidiaries amounts to 514,888.16 million USD, which represents 92.43% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - The cumulative guarantee provided to subsidiaries is 428,642.31 million USD, accounting for 56.29% of the company's most recent audited net assets [1] - There are no overdue guarantees reported [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025-053 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供 COA 履约担保的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 担保对象及基本情况 | | | 被担保人名称 | Yangtze Ltd. | Navigation (Singapore) Pte., （下称"长航新加坡"） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 担 保 | 对 | 本次担保金额 | 不超过 | 亿美元 5.226 | | 象 | | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 0 美元 | | | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | 是 | □否 □不适用： | | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | □是 | 否 □不适用： | 累计担保情况（含本次） | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（美元） | 0 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股 子公司对外担保总额（万美元） | 514,888.16 | | 对外担保总额占上市公司 ...

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 0.78% on October 20, with Antong Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - Antong Holdings (600179) closed at 4.71, with a significant increase of 10.05% and a trading volume of 2.5053 million shares [1] - Haitong Development (603162) saw a rise of 9.63%, closing at 12.30 with a trading volume of 846,100 shares [1] - Xiamen Port Authority (000905) increased by 5.98%, closing at 9.92 with a trading volume of 1.4216 million shares [1] - Other notable performers include Phoenix Shipping (000520) up 4.04% and COSCO Energy (600026) up 3.96% [1] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 282 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 205 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Merchants South Oil (601975) had a net inflow of 96.09 million yuan from institutional investors, but saw a net outflow from retail investors [3] - COSCO Energy (600026) also experienced a significant net inflow of 90.75 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing funds [3] - Other stocks like Jinjiang Shipping (601083) and China Merchants Shipping (601872) showed similar patterns of institutional inflows and retail outflows [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement signed between Danzhou City and China Merchants Group focuses on comprehensive collaboration in shipping logistics, urban development, industrial park development, and comprehensive finance to enhance Danzhou's role in the Hainan Free Trade Port and its integration with Yangpu [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - Danzhou City and China Merchants Group will leverage the policy opportunities presented by the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the deep integration of Danzhou and Yangpu [1] - The cooperation aims to help Danzhou become an international shipping hub and a model for high-level economic and trade rules in Southeast Asia [1] Group 2: Objectives and Benefits - This partnership is a significant step for Danzhou in building a high-level open economy and for China Merchants Group in participating in major national regional development strategies [1] - The collaboration is expected to create a new chapter of resource complementarity and mutual benefits for both parties [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Over 80% of transportation companies have performed well in ESG scores, with 15 companies scoring above 80 and 12 above 90, representing 83% and 67% respectively [9][11] - 94% of the 18 central enterprises in the transportation sector have completed the required disclosures regarding importance assessment, but only 33% have disclosed third-party verification reports [11][13] - Companies in the high score range actively disclose climate change issues, while those in the lower range focus more on environmental issues, indicating a need for improvement in climate-related disclosures [16][17] - The report highlights the social responsibilities of transportation enterprises, particularly in rural revitalization and safety operations, with a 94% disclosure rate for safety operations [37][41] - Governance scores are generally high, with many companies integrating party building into their governance structures, showcasing a unique governance advantage [47][51] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - More than 80% of transportation companies have good overall ESG scores, with detailed financial importance disclosures and high scores in environmental, social responsibility, and governance aspects [9][16] Importance Assessment - 94% of companies have completed the required disclosures, with 17 out of 18 companies highlighting financial importance [11][13] Environmental & Climate - 83% of companies scored between 30-34 in environmental issues, with high disclosure rates for waste management (100%) and energy management (96%) [16][20] - Climate management disclosures show a high completion rate of 89%, but climate strategy disclosures need improvement, with only 56% of companies fully disclosing [32][35] Social Responsibility - Transportation enterprises have detailed their efforts in rural revitalization and social contributions, achieving a 100% disclosure rate for social responsibility [41][42] - Safety operations are a key focus, with 94% of companies disclosing relevant information [37][45] Governance - Governance scores are high, with 14 companies disclosing governance structures and mechanisms, and many integrating party building into their governance [47][51] - 94% of companies focus on safety risk management, with detailed disclosures on safety management systems [53][56]