扬农化工(600486)：全年业绩承压下滑 优创项目助力远期成长

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to falling prices of its main products, but there are signs of potential recovery in the agricultural chemicals market [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 10.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.202 billion yuan, down 23.19% year-on-year - The adjusted net profit was 1.163 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.81% year-on-year - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 2.419 billion yuan, an increase of 9.76% year-on-year and 4.41% quarter-on-quarter - The net profit for Q4 was 176 million yuan, down 13.71% year-on-year and 32.91% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Product Pricing and Sales - The average selling price of raw materials decreased by 16.01% year-on-year to 64,300 yuan/ton, while sales volume increased by 3.5% to 99,900 tons - The average selling price of formulations fell by 9.38% year-on-year to 42,500 yuan/ton, with sales volume up by 2.7% to 34,300 tons - In Q4 2024, the average selling price of raw materials was 67,100 yuan/ton, up 16.9% quarter-on-quarter, but sales volume decreased by 8.7% to 23,800 tons - The average selling price of formulations in Q4 was 76,200 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 157.5% quarter-on-quarter, but sales volume dropped by 66.6% to 2,100 tons [2]. Market Outlook - Agricultural chemical prices are expected to stabilize at low levels, with potential benefits for the company as demand gradually recovers - The agricultural chemicals price index reported by Zhongnong Lihua was 72.33 points as of March 16, 2025, down 6.82% year-on-year, indicating a slowing decline - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in the global crop protection market, supported by its leading position in key products [3][4]. Project Development - The Youchuang project is progressing steadily, with the first phase completed and products being tested for quality - This project is part of China Sinochem's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to generate annual revenue of 1.5 billion yuan and net profit of 100 million yuan by 2026, and 4 billion yuan and 500 million yuan by 2030 - The project aims to resolve bottlenecks faced by the subsidiary Shenyang Kechuang and optimize production layout, enhancing the company's market position [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the agricultural chemicals sector, with projected net profits of 1.34 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 1.73 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 13.3%, and 13.6% respectively - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 17, 15, and 13 times [4].