1月13日，扬农化工跌1.91%，截至发稿，报68.92元/股，成交2.90亿元，换手率1.03%，总市值279.35亿 元。扬农化工股价已经连续4天下跌，区间累计跌幅5.66%。 资料显示，江苏扬农化工股份有限公司位于江苏省扬州市邗江区开发西路203号扬农大厦，成立日期 1999年12月10日，上市日期2002年4月25日，公司主营业务涉及农药产品的研发、生产和销售。主营业 务收入构成为：原药58.64%，贸易20.65%，制剂18.78%，其他1.93%。 华夏中证农业主题ETF（516810）基金经理为张金志。 截至发稿，张金志累计任职时间225天，现任基金资产总规模32.03亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 68.25%， 任职期间最差基金回报-1.67%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，华夏基金旗下1只基金重仓扬农化工。华夏中证农业主题ETF（516810）三季度增持1.15万 股，持有股数8.44 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical's stock price has experienced a decline of 0.78% year-to-date, with a notable drop of 4.61% over the past five trading days, indicating potential volatility in the market [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 13, Yangnong Chemical's stock price was 68.85 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.10 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.74%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 279.07 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a 3.25% increase over the past 20 days and a minimal increase of 0.07% over the past 60 days [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yangnong Chemical reported a revenue of 9.156 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion CNY, up by 2.88% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.833 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.137 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yangnong Chemical was 16,900, a decrease of 6.49% from the previous period, with an average of 23,883 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 7.24% [2] - The fourth largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 14.2374 million shares, a decrease of 2.0554 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept index declined by 0.02%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Hebang Biotechnology, Jiangshan Shares, and Xingfa Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the companies in the glyphosate sector, 9 stocks saw price increases, with notable gains from Nuo Shun (up 4.20%), Li Er Chemical (up 3.45%), and Jiang Tian Chemical (up 2.26%) [1][3] Group 2 - The glyphosate concept sector experienced a net outflow of 234 million yuan, with 13 stocks seeing net outflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in outflows, led by Hebang Biotechnology with a net outflow of 134 million yuan [2] - Other companies with significant net outflows include Jiangshan Shares (57.89 million yuan), Hongtaiyang (29.72 million yuan), and Xin'an Shares (23.04 million yuan) [2] - Conversely, the companies with the highest net inflows included Li Er Chemical (40.21 million yuan), Nuo Shun (18.77 million yuan), and Zhongnong Lihua (3.39 million yuan) [2]

2026 年 01 月 11 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 于畅 S0350124080008 | | | | yuc02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 多晶硅、丁二烯价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 10.7% | 9.6% | 45.1% | | 沪深 300 | 3.5% | 1.0% | 25.9% | 相关报告 《基础化工行业周报：辛醇、硫酸价格上涨，关注 反内卷和铬盐（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏》 ——2025-12-08 《基础化工行 ...

Group 1 - The glyphosate concept sector declined by 0.44%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies like Xin'an Chemical, Lier Chemical, and Jiangshan Chemical [1] - Among the companies in the glyphosate sector, eight stocks saw price increases, with Jiangtian Chemical, Taihe Co., and Nuofengxin leading the gains at 0.58%, 0.52%, and 0.46% respectively [1] - The main capital outflow from the glyphosate sector today was 146 million yuan, with 14 stocks experiencing net outflows, and six stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Xin'an Chemical had the highest net capital outflow of 51.38 million yuan, followed by Nuofengxin, Xingfa Group, and Runfeng Co. with outflows of 19.73 million yuan, 14.59 million yuan, and 12.70 million yuan respectively [1] - The stocks with the highest net capital inflow included Yangnong Chemical and Ando Mai A, with inflows of 0.67 million yuan and 0.06 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading volume for Xin'an Chemical was 3.74%, while Lier Chemical had a turnover rate of 4.12% [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yangnong Chemical's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent decline of 2.03%, while the company has experienced a year-to-date increase of 3.07% in stock price, indicating mixed market sentiment [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yangnong Chemical achieved a revenue of 9.156 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.055 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.88% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.833 billion yuan, with 1.137 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Yangnong Chemical decreased by 6.49% to 16,900, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 7.24% to 23,883 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 14.2374 million shares, a decrease of 2.0554 million shares from the previous period. New entrants include Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, a leading player in the domestic pesticide industry, is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of pesticide prices and the ramp-up of its Youchuang project, leading to potential growth in both volume and price [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company, established in 1999 and backed by Syngenta Group, is a top-tier player in the agricultural chemical sector in China, specializing in pyrethroid active ingredients [2]. - It is a core supplier of pyrethroid products globally, with a comprehensive product range including insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and plant growth regulators, achieving a total production capacity exceeding 100,000 tons [2][4]. - The company has nearly 70 varieties of active ingredients and anticipates production and sales of raw materials to reach 96,913.34 tons and 99,872.64 tons respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.67% and 3.50% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The pesticide market is experiencing a supply-demand optimization, with prices stabilizing and rebounding after significant declines since 2022 [3]. - The agricultural price index has shown a recovery trend, with the raw material index reflecting improvements in various categories, including herbicides [3]. - The implementation of stricter regulations, such as the "one product, one certificate" policy, is expected to benefit leading companies with abundant registration certificates [3]. Group 3: Project Developments - The Youchuang project is set to enhance production capacity, increasing the output of high-efficiency chlorfenapyr from 5,500 tons/year to 8,500 tons/year, thereby solidifying the company's position in the pyrethroid market [1][3]. - The company is also advancing a technical transformation project for 3,000 tons of pyrazole ester, which is expected to contribute additional revenue [3]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.86% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 84.70 yuan based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026 [4].