CHINA TAIPING(HK:00966) 智通财经网·2025-03-28 08:02Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan maintains an "overweight" rating for China Pacific Insurance (00966), raising the target price to HKD 18.05 per share, reflecting a P/EV of 0.34 times for 2025, driven by the company's deepening life insurance transformation and improvement in quality value [1] Group 1: Life Insurance Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to increase by 36.2% year-on-year, supported by improvements in both insurance and investment services [1] - The new business value (NBV) for 2024 is projected to grow by 94.2% (before adjustments) or 21.2% (after adjustments), with a focus on savings-type products leading to higher interest rate sensitivity [1] - The company's traditional life insurance and annuity insurance accounted for 63.4% of total original premium income by the end of 2024, indicating a strong product structure [1] - The NBV growth is attributed to the implementation of a "reporting and operation integration" strategy, resulting in a significant improvement in value rate, up 16.6 percentage points to 32.5% [1] - The company continues to push for high-quality channel transformation, with a slight decrease in workforce by 3.7% to 226,000, while agent productivity increased by 34.8% year-on-year [1] - The life insurance contract service margin (CSM) improved by 0.5% year-on-year (in RMB terms, excluding exchange rate effects), with new business contract service margins increasing by 20.7% [1] Group 2: Property and Casualty Insurance Performance - The total premium income for domestic property and casualty insurance in 2024 is expected to grow by 2.7%, with the combined operating ratio (COR) improving by 0.3 percentage points to 98.1% [2] - The company is expected to moderate its underwriting business expansion to achieve profitability targets [2] - The net investment yield for 2024 is projected at 3.46%, primarily due to declining interest rates, while the total investment yield is expected to increase by 1.91 percentage points to 4.57% [2] - The comprehensive investment yield is anticipated to reach 10.32%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.31%, driven by OCI bond gains and high-dividend equity strategies [2] - A catalyst for improvement is the stabilization of long-term interest rates [2]