EBSCN(601788) 智通财经网·2025-03-28 08:02Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao's profitability is expected to improve due to rising aluminum prices, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The company achieved a record high net profit of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.2%, driven by both volume and price increases of its products [1] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons in 2024, up 1.5% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase from 2023 [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from 2024 to 2026, with a projected surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024, 240,000 tons in 2025, and a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The average price of alumina is projected to rise, supported by a decrease in coal prices, which fell by 11.2% to 681 yuan per ton as of March 14, 2025 [2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, with a dividend yield of 10.7% based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [3] Group 3 - The company has a total alumina production capacity of 19.5 million tons, with 17.5 million tons from domestic sources and 2 million tons from Indonesia, and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of approximately 6.46 million tons [3] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is moving closer to being included in the national carbon market, which may increase costs for producers using thermal power [4] - The carbon emissions from producing electrolytic aluminum using thermal power are significantly higher than those using hydropower, which may lead to a price premium for hydropower aluminum [4]