Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the China Hong Kong 300 Resource Index, which has shown a 2.39% increase over the past month, a 22.23% increase over the past three months, and a 9.29% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of securities from various industry themes such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure, reflecting the overall performance of different thematic listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1] - The index's top ten holdings include China National Offshore Oil (29.27%), PetroChina (13.19%), Zijin Mining (10.84%), China Shenhua Energy (9.38%), Sinopec (9.08%), China Hongqiao Group (4.51%), China Coal Energy (3.47%), Zhaojin Mining (3.08%), Luoyang Molybdenum (2.86%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.39%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the index shows that oil and gas account for 51.92%, precious metals for 15.97%, coal for 15.72%, industrial metals for 14.86%, rare metals for 0.91%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.62% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes mergers, acquisitions, or splits [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) maintains good cost control under integrated operations, allowing for solid profitability, with projected net profits of 21.8 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.0, 7.0, and 6.2 times [1] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in aluminum price assumptions for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 20,000, 20,000, and 21,000 yuan per ton, respectively, due to global tariff risks and an oversupply in the alumina market [1] - The company announced an expected 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, attributed to effective cost control measures [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue expanding, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and overseas production facing high construction costs and long timelines, leading to a supply growth rate of around 1% [2] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is projected to increase by 2-3% due to the synergy from new energy, grid construction, and packaging consumption, indicating a trend of supply shortage [2] Group 3 - The average price of alumina in the second quarter was approximately 3,056 yuan per ton, down from 3,847 yuan per ton in the first quarter, with significant cost reductions expected from the company's self-supplied power generation [3] - The average price of thermal coal in the second quarter was 632 yuan per ton, a notable decrease from 721 yuan per ton in the first quarter, which is expected to lower the company's power generation costs significantly [3] Group 4 - The company is continuing its project to relocate production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with 240,000 tons of capacity already moved since April, and the remaining capacity expected to be relocated by the end of the year [4] - A new electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan, is scheduled to commence operations in July, with the pace of relocation dependent on local electricity conditions [4]

公司半年报业绩增长主要系公司铝合金产品以及氧化铝产品价格均较2024年同期上涨，销售数量亦有所 增加。2025H1铝(A00)均价20317元/吨，同比增加2.6%。同时公司主要成本原料端均有下滑：2025H1国 内氧化铝均价3389.9元/吨，同比-3.4%;秦皇岛港动力末煤(Q5500)平仓价为675.67元/吨，同比-22.8%。 电解铝纳入全国碳市场渐行渐近 铝土矿资源稳定保障，西芒杜铁矿项目未来有望提供新的增长点 2024年3月15日，生态环境部就铝冶炼行业的《企业温室气体排放核算与报告指南》和《企业温室气体 排放核查技术指南》公开征求社会意见。这一举措意味国内电解铝行业或即将纳入全国碳市场。据安泰 科数据，使用火电生产电解铝的吨二氧化碳排放量约13吨，而使用水电生产吨二氧化碳排放量仅为1.8 吨。火电铝成本端变动或将推动电解铝企业内部进行节能降耗和水电铝的价格溢价。 光大证券发布研报称，考虑到铝价中枢价格有望抬升，上调中国宏桥(01378)盈利预测，预计2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为233.7亿元/252.0亿元/277.7亿元，分别上调3.9%/1.9%/1.7%，考虑到其铝行业龙头 地 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream), reported a value of 2572.51 points, with a 2.22% increase over the past month, a 25.04% increase over the past three months, and a 9.20% increase year-to-date [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of theme securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, selected based on the China Securities industry classification [1] - The top ten holdings of the H300 Upstream Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (28.81%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.85%), Zijin Mining Group (10.9%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.29%), Sinopec Limited (8.93%), China Hongqiao Group (4.48%), China Coal Energy Company (3.4%), Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.06%), Luoyang Molybdenum Company (2.89%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.35%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the H300 Upstream Index shows that oil and gas account for 50.95%, precious metals for 16.02%, coal for 15.56%, industrial metals for 14.84%, oil and gas extraction and field services for 1.07%, rare metals for 0.89%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.67% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, with provisions for temporary adjustments in special circumstances [2]

2025 年 7 月 7 日 公司研究 高分红一体化龙头业绩同比高增，西芒杜铁矿项目有望提供利润新增点 ——中国宏桥（1378.HK）动态跟踪报告 要点 2025年公司半年报业绩超市场预期：2025年6月23日，公司公告2025年上半年 净利润预计可能会增加35%左右，达到约123.6亿元。 成本端下滑叠加铝价坚挺支撑公司业绩高增。公司半年报业绩增长主要系公司铝 合金产品以及氧化铝产品价格均较2024年同期上涨，销售数量亦有所增加。 2025H1铝（A00）均价20317元/吨，同比增加2.6%。同时公司主要成本原料端 均有下滑：2025H1国内氧化铝均价3389.9元/吨，同比-3.4%；秦皇岛港动力末 煤(Q5500）平仓价为675.67元/吨，同比-22.8%。 铝土矿资源稳定保障，西芒杜铁矿项目未来有望提供新的增长点。公司具备稳定 的原料供应源，中国宏桥在几内亚合资设立矿业公司（SMB）和河港公司（WAP）， 主营业务为开采铝土矿，并建有河港码头和海上过驳转运系统。据我的钢铁网报 道，西芒杜铁矿项目预计于2025年底交付，2026年出口。西芒杜铁矿位于几内 亚东南部，是全球储量最大、品质最高的未开发铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights China Hongqiao (01378.HK) as a strong investment option in the aluminum industry, particularly in light of recent developments in bauxite supply and pricing dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The global aluminum market is experiencing shifts, with Goldman Sachs suggesting that aluminum could replace copper in certain applications due to price disparities [1]. - Guinea, holding the largest bauxite reserves globally, has revoked mining licenses for 51 companies, indicating that resource-rich countries are gaining more pricing power in the commodities market [3][4]. - In 2024, China is expected to import 15,866.74 million tons of bauxite, with Guinea supplying 11,011.33 million tons, accounting for 69.40% of total imports [3]. Group 2: Company Positioning - China Hongqiao is the only Chinese aluminum company that is fully self-sufficient in the upstream process of electrolytic aluminum production, which has led to increased profits as bauxite supply tightens and alumina prices rebound [4][10]. - The company has a strategic partnership in Guinea, known as the "Winning Alliance," which has created significant employment opportunities and contributed to local infrastructure development [5][8]. - China Hongqiao's return on equity (ROE) has been stable, ranging from 9.7% to 22.4% from 2018 to 2024, outperforming peers in the industry [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The average profit for electrolytic aluminum is projected to rise, with a reported increase of 160 yuan/ton year-on-year and 2,276 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The company has a competitive edge with a lower production cost of 13,200 yuan/ton, which is 15% below the industry average, due to its integrated supply chain [10][12]. - China Hongqiao has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of over 50%, with a projected dividend yield exceeding 10% in 2024, making it an attractive option for investors seeking income [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hongqiao New Materials Co., Ltd. has been awarded the "ESG Excellence Project Award" for its 2025 Third Phase Green Technology Innovation Bond, highlighting its significant environmental benefits and social value [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shandong Hongqiao is a leading aluminum company and a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Group, with a fully integrated industrial chain covering power, bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, deep processing of aluminum, and recycled aluminum [4]. - The company has achieved remarkable financial performance, with a revenue of 151.718 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.65%, and a net profit surge of 110.14% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company's main business revenue continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 15.56% and a net profit growth of 46.46% [4]. Group 2: ESG Commitment - The company has integrated green development principles into its operations, supported by ISO 14001 environmental management systems and multiple national and provincial-level green factory certifications [4]. - Shandong Hongqiao has been recognized as an industry leader in energy efficiency and has received the first AAA rating for resource recycling products in the domestic aluminum deep processing sector [4]. Group 3: Green Bond Issuance - The 2025 Third Phase Green Technology Innovation Bond, amounting to 500 million yuan, will fund 28 photovoltaic power station projects with a total investment of 14.52 billion yuan [7]. - The bond is characterized by its multi-label nature, being both a green bond focused on clean energy and a technology innovation bond that supports rural revitalization [7]. Group 4: Environmental Impact - The projects funded by the bond are expected to significantly reduce emissions, with an estimated annual reduction of 100,800 tons of CO₂ and 13.28 tons of SO₂, among other pollutants [8]. - The bond's issuance is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce risks through the application of new technologies [8]. Group 5: Socioeconomic Benefits - The photovoltaic projects are anticipated to create diverse employment opportunities, contributing to local economic development and supporting poverty alleviation efforts [8][9]. - The dual focus on green energy infrastructure and rural revitalization is expected to create a resilient feedback loop, enhancing both economic and social outcomes [9]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The integration of green finance and rural revitalization is projected to become a trend, encouraging more companies and financial institutions to engage in sustainable practices [10].

长江证券发布研报称，碳酸锂、稀土和特钢展现极强爆发性。随着全球经济结构性分化，中国宏桥 (01378)作为传统金属龙头穿越周期波动，表现中枢持续稳中有升。中国宏桥2019年以来屡创新高，最 高涨幅达577%，6年实现近6倍涨幅，2024ROE约26%。该行指出，资源投资开采周期长+海外诸多扰 动，推升资源品质点ROE高出制造业一倍。电解铝供给核心在于电力，铝属于地产经济溢出的新的消费 金属，需求增量极具韧性，铝板块成长有望行稳致远。 长江证券主要观点如下： 借鉴煤炭：高现金分红，估值重塑 近年来做收益率下行，高股息的油和煤炭产纷纷穿越周期，估值逆势抬升，2022年报中国石油和中国神 华（601088）股息率高达8.5%和9.2%，与今年中国宏桥近10%股息率相当。2023Q3以来，煤炭PE中枢 从6X提升至12X。追本溯源，彼时煤炭迈入高分红拐点在于：(1)煤价中高位催生现金流丰厚，赋予分 红能力;(2)负债和开支双双下滑，提升分红意愿;(3)保底分红承诺，更彰显分红信心。增产有限和"双 碳"约束扩产，煤炭供给刚性周期是高分红的强力支撑。 (3)尽管铝主矿价底部企稳，不过氧化铝供给过剩+煤电价下跌，电解铝的高 ...

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